A recent Detroit News/Mitchell poll of 400 likely Michigan voters shows a statistical dead heat between the two leading presidential candidates.
The poll, conducted Monday and Tuesday, shows Vice President Al Gore with a slight lead of 45 percent to Texas Gov. George W. Bush’s 40 percent. However, the numbers are within the poll’s margin of error of 5 points, leaving the rivals statistically tied.
Green Party candidate Ralph Nader had 3 percent of the votes and 11 percent of those polled were undecided.
According to the poll, Gore was also fairing better among women, especially in age groups of 40 to 49 and 60 to 69.
Because Michigan is a key “battleground” state, voters are speculating as to who or what will tip the balance before Tuesday’s election.
“In the state of Michigan, Gore has had a two- to three-point lead all week,” said Ed Sarpolus, vice president of EPIC/MRA, a Lansing-based polling firm. “So if I’m an undecided voter, I might wake up in a cold sweat and say ‘Wow, that was a bad night, I’m going to vote for the other guy.’”
Bill Ballenger, editor and publisher of Inside Michigan Politics, agreed the election could go either way.
“Somebody’s got to win,” Ballenger said. “It’s just very close - it will be a cliffhanger.
“If had to call it right now, I would pick it mildly for Gore, but only in Michigan. Nationally, that’s a different story.”
The poll also showed Michigan’s U.S. Senate race to be extremely close. U.S. Sen. Spence Abraham, R-Auburn Hills, had 40 percent of likely voter support, while U.S. Rep. Debbie Stabenow, D-Lansing, was at 38 percent.
“If I had to call that, I’d call it marginally for Abraham,” Ballenger said.
“Abraham opened up a lead in late September (and) early October based on negative TV ads he ran during the summer. Stabenow didn’t have anything on TV because she had to save her money, but once she started spending money, she went up a little.”
Chemistry freshman Andrew Goetz, a member of the MSU College Democrats, said the student vote will be important to the candidates.
“Students know that Gore and Stabenow are fighting for us, and the best thing they can do is get out and vote,” Goetz said. “The Republicans have outspent the Democrats in many of the elections, and seeing how close the polls are, you can see ideals really count and Gore will pull ahead.
“You can’t buy ideals.”
Jason Ahrens, chairman of the MSU College Republicans and general management sophomore, said rallies are the key if Bush wants to close the gap in Michigan.
“Polls aren’t always accurate, but Michigan will definitely be a deciding state,” Ahrens said. “ The college Republicans will take every action to ensure a Bush victory in Michigan.
“As far as new television ads coming out for the (U.S.) Senate race, anything new certainly can’t hurt.”
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
Robin D’Angelo can be reached at dangelor@msu.edu.
