Brenton Craggs knows MSU isn’t thriving with conservative Republicans. But while he used to feel like a loner supporting Rick Santorum for president, he and some of his friends are now seeing eye to eye.
“I think his number of (student) supporters are growing,” said Craggs, a medical technology and political science senior. “People are seeing that he is a viable candidate.”
He’s not alone anymore. In fact, Santorum might come out on top next week in the Michigan primary. He held a 15-point lead over former front-runner Mitt Romney a week ago, but Monday the race tightened to four points, according to a poll from Public Policy Polling. Other polls have shown consistent leads for Santorum the past several days.
With a week left until Feb. 28, when Michigan voters give their pitch for a Republican presidential nominee, the state still is largely up in the air. Once thought a shoe-in state for Romney, who was born in Detroit and grew up in Michigan, Santorum has emerged as a threat.
National attention
The neck-and-neck race has drawn a mass of national media attention to the mitten, much more so than Arizona, which also has its primary on the same day and roughly the same number of delegates.
All-day cable channels eye the latest numbers; national newspapers such as The New York Times analyze each candidate’s stance on the Detroit automaker bailout. Advertisements from both sides air on media markets across Michigan; Romney pumping up his hometown boy history, while Santorum tries to tear him down.
Since Michigan has one of the earliest primaries — Super Tuesday, where 10 states hold the individual contests, isn’t until March 6 — next Tuesday will be an important test of Romney’s winning ability, said Matt Grossmann, an MSU political science professor who specializes in campaigns and elections.
“It’s before other states in the process and a test of whether Romney can win his own state,” Grossmann said.
But as for who will win next Tuesday, not even the experts agree.
On Monday, MSU political science professor Paul Abramson called the race — it’s Santorum’s to win, he said. It just depends by how embarrassing of a margin for Romney.
“People are looking for an alternative to Romney, and right now he looks like the most viable,” Abramson said, citing recent poll numbers showing Santorum in the lead.
Newt Gingrich, Buddy Roemer, Fred Karger and Ron Paul also are competing for the Republican nomination in Michigan, but polls have showed them garnering little support.
On Monday, the Romney campaign tried to quell the importance of winning Michigan.
“Mitt Romney has connections to three states,” Eric Fehrnstrom, a senior campaign advisor, said Monday on MSNBC. “Four years ago we won (Michigan, Utah and Massachusetts). Is any one of them a must-win for Mitt Romney? No.”
Other experts have called it for Romney.
For instance, Doug Roberts, director of the Institute for Public Policy and Social Research, isn’t so focused on poll numbers.
“When it comes right down to it, I think Romney will carry the state,” he said, adding Romney will be more effective in bringing out voters.
Although they have different views about the outcome, both noted the unpredictable climate of the primary considering anyone can vote. On-the-fence independents and even Democrats can show up at the polls to give their input or intentionally skew the results.
There’s also the issue of convention delegates. When it comes to the primary, winning the popular vote isn’t as important as garnering delegates from each district, Roberts said. Come national convention time in August, that form of party support matters most, he said.
Across campuses
Some candidates are pushing for students to be among those in line to vote next Tuesday.
On Monday, the Paul campaign confirmed a rally at the Auditorium on Feb. 27, a day before the primary.
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The announcement had been anticipated since last Thursday when Wharton Center officials said they were in the midst of booking Paul’s appearance. Although Paul is ranked low in the polls, students involved in his campaign gathered more than 1,000 signatures on a
petition to bring Paul to MSU.
“Our hope is that this event will turn out a lot of youth voters,” MSU Youth for Ron Paul President Ethan Davis said. “We’re the only candidate that can mobilize young people.”
Santorum also was at work building youth support Tuesday, speaking at Hope College, a Christian liberal arts school near Holland, Mich.
Romney’s campaign wouldn’t say whether he would be visiting a university in Michigan.
“Many college students are concerned about the economy – about what jobs will be available to them after they graduate,” Romney spokeswoman Amanda Henneberg said in an email, discussing Romney’s plan to garner support from Michigan’s college population. “Voters of all ages across Michigan are supporting Gov. Romney because of his positive vision for our country.”
