Following a confidence-boosting win against Indiana Saturday, Michigan State men's basketball will return home to complete a busy two-week stretch to end their season.
On Tuesday, No. 5 Illinois will make the trip to East Lansing with tip-off at 7 p.m. The Illini sit at second in the Big Ten conference, just behind Michigan. On the other hand, Michigan State is attempting to rally back from 11th place in the conference to keep the flickering light that is NCAA Tournament hopes alive.
This weekend, State News men's basketball beat reporter Jayna Bardahl spoke with Brandon Simberg of The Daily Illini to get an insider's perspective on what the Illini will bring to Breslin Center.
Q: In the last meeting between MSU and Illinois, the Spartans just escaped with a 70-69 victory in Champaign. How much has Illinois’ team changed from last season? How will this game be different?
A: On paper, Illinois' roster is pretty similar to last year's. They returned four starters and a bench contributor. The newcomers that play are junior forward Jacob Grandison and freshman guards Adam Miller and Andre Curbelo. Grandison starts at the four, Miller starts in the backcourt and Curbelo is the first guard off the bench. The reason Illinois is now a top-five team, is the return and improvement of Ayo Dosunmu and Kofi Cockburn. Both were all B10 players last season, but Dosunmu is now on a short list of players in the history of college basketball to average over 21 points, six rebounds, and five assists, Cockburn has upped his scoring and rebounding, racking up 15 double-doubles this season. Last year, I felt these team's were pretty even with the Spartans having a slight edge. This season, it feels like the Illini have the talent edge.
Q: Illinois has been a fairly consistent team this season, with their fair share of mishaps in games like the close 77-72 win over Nebraska or 66-63 loss to Maryland. What goes wrong in games like these for the Illini?
A: Production from Dosunmu and Cockburn is consistent and doesn't change even in losses. When the role players are off their game, that's when Illinois is vulnerable. Trent Frazier averages 11 points per game in wins, and 7.8 points per game in losses. When playing well, Illinois is collectively rebounding and getting out in transition. But when they are too reliant on Cockburn to rebound, it hurts them on both ends. They also aren't always great at protecting the ball. Their 13.4 turnovers per game is the third worst mark in the conference, behind only Nebraska and Michigan State.
Q: Illinois has three consistent double-figure scorers in Ayo Dosunmu, Kofi Cockburn and Trent Frazier. In what ways does this trio complement each other? How reliant is the Illini team on them?
A: Illinois has a really solid dynamic between Dosunmu, Cockburn and Frazier. Underwood runs a lot of high pick-and-roll sets for Dosunmu and Cockburn where Dosunmu can look to score himself, lob to Cockburn, or kick out to a wing shooter like Frazier. Dosunmu is also dynamic in transition, where he can score with ease or create for others. In the half court, Cockburn isn't a great passer but he gets doubled a ton which creates open shots for his teammates. Illinois is very reliant on Dosunmu and Cockbur, but they're two of the top players in the sport and have consistently shown up, especially in their recent winning streak. But manage to shut one of them down, and the Illini become more beatable.
Q: What is your score prediction and why?
A: I say Illinois wins 77-68. I think Cockburn will present some matchup problems inside for the Spartans. Aaron Henry is the kind of guy I want to guard Dosunmu, but I think the Illini are just playing at a higher level right now and will walk out of East Lansing with a win.
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