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Political experts: Second primary unlikely for Mich.

March 9, 2008

With Michigan’s Democratic delegates still not being counted at August’s national convention, pressure from the Democratic National Committee to hold a second primary in Michigan has been mounting as the presidential nominee race remains close.

But such an election is unlikely, political experts said.

Despite the committee’s urging Michigan to hold another election between Sens. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., and Barack Obama, D-Ill., such an event would be costly.

State law prohibits a second primary and legislation would have to be passed to allow a new primary.

As a result, an election would have to be funded by private donors, said Bill Ballenger, editor and publisher of Inside Michigan Politics, a Lansing-based political newsletter. The concept of a second election is unique, he said.

“There hasn’t ever been anything like this,” he said. “Not only in my lifetime, but it has never happened in Michigan’s 200 years of history. Never, period. And it probably won’t happen this time, either.”

Ballenger said problems also could arise because people who voted in the Republican primary or didn’t vote at all Jan. 15 could vote in a new election.

Both Ballenger and Paul Abramson, an MSU political science professor and national election expert, said talk of a second election might be premature.

They said Michigan’s delegates might not be a deciding factor in the Democratic race because several states still have to hold primaries before the Democratic National Convention.

Sen. Carl Levin, D-Mich., said a mail-in ballot is the most viable option, although the process is complicated.

“How do you make sure that hundreds of thousands, perhaps a million or more ballots can be properly counted and that duplicate ballots can be avoided?” Levin said Sunday on ABC’s “This Week,” according to the Associated Press.

The likelihood that both the Obama and Clinton campaigns agree on an election format is slim, Abramson said.

He said Obama, in the event of another primary, would favor a caucus while Clinton supports another election.

Instead of a new primary or caucus, Abramson said one option could be to penalize the state by stripping it of half its delegates, much like the Republicans did, and then dividing the Jan. 15 primary results between Clinton and Obama.

But holding a new election, Abramson said, would not represent the political climate during Michigan’s original primary date because much has changed since then.

“There is no way you can ever know how Michigan voters would have voted the first time,” he said. “You can’t recreate that situation. You can’t have a vote that will reflect that particular reality.”

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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