A projected decline in 2003 staff levels for Lansing-area employers has some MSU students entering the job market fearing they may soon feel the effects.
About 20 percent of Lansing employers said they are expecting a decline in their workforce from January to March, according to a staffing-service study released Monday by Milwaukee-based Manpower Inc.
The study said about 13 percent of area employers are expecting an increase in the same time period.
Journalism junior Tom Lerch said his chief concern was how he was going to use his degree to his advantage. He said he hopes the fluttering economy will not be lingering as he enters the job market.
"You only hope that it won't be," Lerch said. "But you have to prepare that it will."
The trend is likely the result of economic stagnation, according to analysts.
"What we're finding is the market is not changing much," said Elaine Sandbrook, Manpower's area manager. "The beginning of the year is typically not a strong employment time anyways."
Compared to the rest of the state, Lansing was one of only seven regions in the state to forecast a decline in overall staff size. Increases in staff sizes were predicted in 16 areas and five reported no expected change.
The labor market often looks to manufacturing for economic indicators of growth, which gives confidence to other sectors of the market, Sandbrook said.
"Manufacturing leads the way," she said. "I'm starting to see some rumblings of things picking up a bit, which is a great sign for the market. Once manufacturing picks up, it really leads."
Sandbrook said retail and education were key sectors of the economy that could expect cutbacks.
Retail often works on a cyclical basis, and hiring practices often coincide with holidays and seasons, rather than fiscal quarters, said Larry Meyer, CEO and chairman of the Michigan Retailers Association.
"What we normally do is gear up with temporary help for the Christmas season, which takes us through January," Meyer said. "We gear up for the holidays, then gear down in January."
Meyer added that the automotive industry was the best indicator for Lansing-area economic health.
Meyer said he could not predict spring hiring trends "unless it's where we are in auto manufacturing. You won't get that kind of a swing because of retail."
Howard Ballein, owner of the Student Book Store, 421 E. Grand River Ave., said hiring workers should comply with the holiday cycle of retail, but he also anticipates a boost next semester.
"We normally hire for the busy periods," Ballein said of the textbook rush around semester breaks. "Typically we'd start around finals week of the spring hiring people for the next fall."
Ballein said he was sure the bookstore embraces the brunt of larger economic trends, despite its traditional and cyclical nature of business. He also paired the bookstore's hiring practices to aggregate economic stability.
"You have to watch your overhead," he said. "It's better to forecast and better to project your sales, otherwise you can't afford the 100 extra people you bring on at book rush.
"I hope the economy gets better," Ballein said.
