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Gap closes in Senate race

October 27, 2000

One of the nation’s most crucial U.S. Senate races got a little more interesting Thursday.

After months of polls showing Lansing Democratic Congresswoman Debbie Stabenow drastically trailing incumbent Spence Abraham, R-Auburn Hills, a Lansing-based polling firm has finally given her some good news.

With the election just days away, an EPIC/MRA poll shows Stabenow has erased a 10-point deficit within the last week. The new poll shows the two candidates in a statistical dead heat.

A survey of 600 likely voters showed each candidate rallying 41 percent of voter support.

“Voters have now started to make up their mind on the more important issues surrounding the race,” said Ed Sarpolus, vice president of EPIC/MRA, of the key Senate race. “They are in the midst of deciding who has the best plan of action and are settling firmly on a candidate.”

The poll shows Stabenow heavily favored among union members, and gaining support from women.

The results come just days after Stabenow and Abraham engaged in their only two debates. A Sunday forum in Grand Rapids was televised statewide on public TV stations, while a Monday debate wasn’t aired.

Both candidates have accumulated massive spending accounts. Abraham, wrapping up his first Senate term, has raised more than $8 million while Stabenow has raked in $4 million.

The highly touted race has been jam-packed with attack advertisements and television spots aimed at specific voters. Sarpolus said Stabenow is now matching her opponent ad-for-ad and stealing his thunder on typically Democratic issues like health care and education.

And aides to Stabenow, a former Michigan state legislator who was first elected to Congress in 1996 after defeating incumbent Dick Chrysler, said their efforts are finally starting to show.

“Earlier in the campaign we made a conscious decision to save our resources for the final six weeks of the campaign,” said Robert Gibbs, Stabenow’s spokesman. “We now have the ability to match them ad-for-ad and dollar-for-dollar for the rest of the campaign.”

The outcome of the Senate race could determine which party becomes the majority. Republicans hold a slight edge in both congressional chambers.

Abraham’s camp has countered the EPIC/MRA poll with an in-house survey. The poll, conducted by Hill Research Consultants for the Republican incumbent, shows Stabenow trailing severely.

The survey of 550 people shows Abraham enjoying a 49 percent to 41 percent advantage.

Sarpolus, though, discredited Abraham’s poll, saying it’s nothing more than an attempt to hide the results of the EPIC/MRA tally.

“Abraham has released the poll in an attempt to counter any negative numbers regarding his campaign out there,” Sarpolus said.

“The less negativity surrounding his campaign enhances his chance of re-election.”

Despite the discrepancies in polls, aides to Abraham are confident of the senator’s bid for re-election. They will continue to keep with the campaign strategy that they say has been successful since the race began.

“Senator Abraham will be on TV heavily throughout the rest of the campaign to keep himself visible,” said Trent Wisecup, Abraham’s spokesman. “As soon as the legislative session in Washington finishes, Abraham will return to Michigan on a barn-storming campaign across the state to get his message out to potential voters.”

The new poll doesn’t come as a surprise to many political experts. Some say Stabenow, with the help of debates, has become more visible.

“The tightening in the polls is not surprising as the election draws closer,” said Carol Weissert, a political science professor at MSU.

“The difference can more than likely be attributed to Stabenow’s campaign becoming more visible and getting more air time on television and getting her message out to the public.”

Abraham, though, likely has time to reach out to voters, Sarpolus said. Since he has held the advantage in polls and has been more favored than the GOP’s top candidate - presidential nominee and Texas Gov. George W. Bush - he might not have many problems regaining his once-large lead.

Meanwhile, Stabenow’s numbers have fluctuated at or below the level of support for her party’s top draw - Vice President Al Gore.

“The fact that Abraham has been holding higher numbers than Bush throughout the election indicates that he has time to turn his campaign around,” Sarpolus said. “He has the advantage of more money to invest in his campaign and his strong showings in the recent polls show he has time to recapture voters he has potentially lost.”

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Jeff Latinen can be reached at latinenj@msu.edu.

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