Michigan’s offense 

The chance of a Spartan victory increases every time Michigan is stuffed at the line of scrimmage, every time Wolverine running backs are unable to sustain yardage, every time Justice Haynes is limited from breaking a 70-yard run for six. 

The emphasis this week for MSU’s defense is stopping Michigan’s potent rushing attack. This season, it’s been the Wolverines best trait, averaging just over 212 rush yards per game, a statistic that ranks them 22nd in college football. 

The leader of this dangerous rushing attack is the aforementioned Justice Haynes, a junior running back that's known for breaking long, 50, 60 or 70 yard runs that ignite the Wolverines' offense. In his first season with Michigan, Haynes has run the ball 95 times for 705 yards (a 7.4 average) with eight touchdowns. He did not play in Michigan's previous game against Washington due to injury but is scheduled to return against MSU. 

"They are a physical team," defensive coordinator Joe Rossi said. "They run the ball on a variety of different run schemes, do it out of a bunch of different personal groupings, so they do a really good job with [running the football.]"

Haynes isn’t the only Wolverine who can run the football. Behind him, there’s also sophomore running back Jordan Marshall, a powerful, fleet-footed back that has the ability to ignite his team just as Haynes does. This season, Marshall has carried the football 84 times for 434 yards with four touchdowns. In his first start of the season last week against Washington, he had 25 carries for 133 yards with one touchdown. 

Then there’s freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood, a player who can not only be an asset in the passing game, but also an asset in the running game. On the ground, the former consensus No. 1 high school recruit has run the football 39 times for 202 yards, finding the endzone on three occasions. 

When throwing the football, Underwood has been good – but not great. When playing, his raw talent shines, but like any young quarterback there are still growing pains, such as chemistry with his receivers and identification issues when reading defenses. Passing the ball, Underwood has gone 113-for-181 with 1,440 yards with seven touchdowns to two interceptions. 

"He’s got great size, he’s got great arm strength, he’s got great athleticism," Rossi said referring to Underwood. "He's getting better every week, and I think highly of him. If we’re gonna play well on defense we’ve gotta do a good job against him."

The Wolverines are a running machine. They win the line of scrimmage, they scheme success, they run the football hard and often. If MSU has the desire to bring the Paul Bunyan Trophy back to East Lansing, it must stop Michigan’s rushing attack. If it does this, everything else falls into place.

Such a task won’t be easy for MSU. This season, the Spartans have given up an average of just over 131 yards per game, a statistic that ranks them 52nd nationally. They haven’t been effective in winning the line of scrimmage and haven’t been effective at tackling opposing players in space – both of which are needed to stop Michigan from pounding run after run for first down after first down. 

To be sufficient in limiting this Wolverine rushing attack, MSU must not lose in the trenches. Defensive linemen like junior Alex VanSumeren and seventh-year Quindarius Dunnigan must win their one-on-ones and create pressure in running lanes. Once these lanes are penetrated, the Spartans must tackle better than they have all season.

If such things can happen and Michigan’s rushing attack is limited, then the pressure is put on a true freshman quarterback playing in his first rivalry game, which promises to be hard-hitting and hostile. This in itself is a win for MSU.  

Michigan’s defense

After the two teams combined for 70 total points in 2021, Michigan’s defense has left its mark on the rivalry. The Spartans have scored only 24 points in their last three matchups – a stretch highlighted by a dominant 49-0 Michigan victory in 2023, the last time the Wolverines traveled to East Lansing.

Michigan’s defense may not be as dominant as it was during the 2023 national championship season, but it remains highly competitive. The front seven – led by senior linebacker Jaishawn Barham and sophomore linebacker Cole Sullivan, along with senior defensive end Derrick Moore – is a key reason why.

"The front seven, personnel-wise, jumps off the film," offensive coordinator Brian Lindgren said. "Really active on the edges. They push the pocket, they’re deep, and people haven’t scored a lot of points against them."

The Wolverines currently allow just 17 points per game, ranking 14th in college football, and have been efficient in producing turnovers, ranking eighth in the country with an average of two per game.

But like any defense, it has its weaknesses. Its Achilles’ heel has been passing coverage, as opposing quarterbacks are completing 66.5% of their passes and averaging 215 yards per game, ranking Michigan 49th nationally.

That could be good news for Spartan fans. MSU’s effective passing attack, led by junior quarterback Aidan Chiles, appears to have found its rhythm again after he threw for 243 yards on 27-of-33 passing last week against No. 3 Indiana — one of the best defenses in the country. It was a promising sign following a two-game stretch against Nebraska and UCLA in which he threw for just 151 combined yards and turned the ball over three times.

"I thought Aidan had one of his better games as far as distributing the football," Lindgren said. "I thought he saw the field really well, and then we were able to mix in some screens, some different type of plays that maybe their defensive scheme allowed that week, which was able to get him in a rhythm."

While Michigan’s pass defense can falter at times, its ability to stop the run remains a strength. The Wolverines allow just 93.1 yards rushing per game, good for 11th in college football. This creates a challenge for MSU in trying to reignite its rushing attack — a spark that’s been missing since Big Ten play began.

A successful jump-start to the ground game would be huge for the Spartans. In 48 of the last 55 meetings in the rivalry, the team with more yards rushing has won, though the trend isn’t absolute. Last season, MSU out-rushed Michigan 163-119 but still lost 24-17.

Reestablishing the ground game is crucial regardless of the opponent. MSU hasn’t eclipsed 100 yards rushing since Sept. 20 against USC, leaving the offense one-dimensional and limiting its overall potential.

"We’ve got to execute at a higher level right now," Lindgren said, referring to the run game. "It’s a big part of our offense. When we’re at our best, we’re running the football and playing our stuff off of it."

That task becomes even tougher against Michigan. The Wolverines’ ferocious front seven will be eager to meet the running back in the backfield at every opportunity. If the Spartans can rediscover their rhythm on the ground, it could be the difference between a thrilling win or a disappointing loss.

On Saturday at 7:30 p.m. at Spartan Stadium, the Spartans and Wolverines will attempt to crush each other in efforts to receive the Paul Bunyan Trophy. The game will air on NBC.