Had Michigan State (18-13, 10-10 Big Ten) followed a Senior Night win over Northwestern with a victory on the road at Indiana on Sunday afternoon, the team could feel safe about securing the program’s 26th consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance ahead of the week in Minneapolis. 

However, Tyson Walker’s 30 points weren’t enough for MSU to overcome an early 17-point deficit and a 40-22 scoring landslide in the paint for the Hoosiers – the Spartans lost 65-64 as Walker missed a runner from the baseline in the final seconds. They still have some work to do toward giving the March Madness selection committee no reasons to leave them out of the "big dance."

The bottom line: Michigan State needs to beat Minnesota on Thursday if it wants a sweat-less Selection Sunday. 

The good news for MSU is that, even in "down years," the Spartans have found ways to manufacture tremendous success in March. Izzo’s eight Final Fours tell that story, as does his ability to reach them as low as a 7-seed. He’s won three Big Ten Tournament championships since 2014. The last time he missed the NCAA Tournament, none of his current players were born.

Izzo knows better than anyone in college basketball that his group is officially entering crunch time. 

"This is tournament time," Izzo said during a press conference after practice on Friday. 

Metrics also favor MSU, with the Spartans ranked No. 23 in the NCAA Net rankings and No. 19 in the KenPom rankings.

Still, MSU hasn’t done itself any favors in how it started and ended the regular season. Ranked No. 4 in the country to begin the season, the Spartans stumbled to a 4-5 start. From there, they won 13 out of 17 contests, only to lose four of their last five. It’s not just that the Spartans are on a losing skid — they don’t seem to be playing their best basketball at the season's climax. 

Shortcomings at the center position in all phases have plagued MSU more than any of its other issues or inconsistencies, such as poor three-point shooting, free-throw shooting and missed layups. All four big men can do different things, but they all lack presence in the paint. This came to a head on Sunday when Kel’el Ware, Indiana’s 7-foot transfer center, went for 28 points and looked unstoppable inside. No Spartan big man had an answer.

Izzo knows there’s a cap on what his center group can produce on a nightly basis. He knew it before the season when MSU brought back three guards "that were on magazine covers," referencing Walker, senior A.J. Hoggard and junior Jaden Akins. Izzo said he believes he has a guy in Walker who can take this year’s group places – but that won’t come without production and consistency from the other two. 

"If those three guards can come back around, then center by committee isn’t as bad of a deal," Izzo said. "When we’re trying to get points out of them, people search when things aren’t going as perfect. But people that are supposed to do their job have to do their job, and we’ll be fine."

At its best, Michigan State basketball defends, rebounds and runs with relentless effort and success. It’s been the program’s mantra for 29 years under Izzo. This year, it’s been a struggle for his team to put all three together for extended periods of time. 

Izzo said he’s imploring his team to be more aggressive in transition as tensions are heightened and fast breaks can change games. 

"I don’t think our break has been very good," Izzo said. "I don’t think we’ve pushed it very hard. I blame all of our guys. We’re not running as hard as we do."

With a win over Minnesota, MSU likely will face 1-seed Purdue on Friday, posing significant matchup problems for the Spartans. If they face the Boilermakers in Minneapolis, they’ll be tasked with stopping 7’4" Zach Edey and a clan of gritty, effective guards. 

"We’re just putting our foot on the pedal," Izzo said. "I think our foot’s been off the pedal a little bit."

Michigan State and Minnesota will tip off at noon on Thursday, March 14 at the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minn. Big Ten Network will air the game.