First Kentucky, with its eight electoral votes for McCain. Then Vermont cast its three for Obama. Two hours later, Michigan, with the support of Allan’s vote, joined the ranks of states lining up behind Obama.

As state after state turned blue on the map, McCain conceded and Obama gave a victory speech in Chicago.

Up and down the dorm halls, students yelled and cheered, celebrating Obama’s win. Allan, now a zoology junior, reveled in the moment, savoring her first voting experience.

“It was pretty exciting,” Allan said. “They emphasized a lot about it being such a historic election. I liked a lot of what Obama would speak about, with student debt and his outlook on changing things and acknowledging that things need to change.”

Two years later, Michigan’s unemployment rate is about 13 percent and graduating students are leaving the state in droves to seek better opportunity.

After eight years, Gov. Jennifer Granholm is term-limited. A race is raging between two gubernatorial hopefuls, one the mayor of Lansing, and the other a successful Ann Arbor businessman.

But Allan does not know their names. She does not know their platforms or positions. And she probably will not learn in time to vote Nov. 2 at the polls.

“I haven’t really looked into any of the (gubernatorial) candidates,” Allan said.

“My dad wants me to vote for one of the candidates, but I don’t remember who it is.”

The presidential election might have been exciting and memorable, but many analysts agree that the 2010 Michigan gubernatorial election likely is just as important, if not more so, for the future of the state than the 2008 presidential election.

But fewer students are registered to vote and far fewer are expected to show up at the polls.
Campaigning across MSU’s campus is muted, and in general, interest is down.

In the wake of an economic crisis and a term-limited governor, student voter apathy is expected to plague the November midterm election.

A different year

Apathy is not merely a disease of student voters. Without a presidential election, fewer citizens across all demographics will show up at the polls in November, said Bill Ballenger, editor and publisher of political newsletter “Inside Michigan Politics.”

“In non-presidential years, you’re talking about a totally different kettle of fish,” Ballenger said.

“The turnout is going to be way down. The question is, ‘How will they vote compared to 2006 or 2002?’”
In a recent conference call with reporters, even Obama acknowledged voters are not as passionate about the 2010 elections as they were in 2008.

“Now, I’ve been in office for two years,” Obama said. “And during that time, naturally, some of the excitement and enthusiasm started to drain away because people felt like, ‘Gosh, all we’re reading about are constant arguments in Washington and things haven’t changed as much as we would like as quickly as we’d like.’”

In the city of East Lansing, voter registration numbers are down from 2008. City Clerk Nicole Evans said she expects November’s turnout to be low.

In 2008, about 36,500 voters were registered in the city, including about 17,500 in the seven precincts that are linked as “student” precincts.

More than 65 percent of the city’s voters traveled to the polls to cast their ballot.

Monday was the cutoff for voters to register for the Nov. 2 elections, and as of Wednesday, only 25,172 city residents were registered to vote.

About 11,100 were registered at the primarily-student voter locations.

Part of this decline came after the 2008 elections, when the state purged voter registration databases, Evans said.

However, in addition to the lower registration numbers, Evans said she expects turnout to drag at a much lower percent than in 2008.

“(The) 2002 (elections) would be the most comparable, because that’s the last time we had an election with no incumbent,” Evans said.

“Even then, (turnout) was about 43, 44 percent. So I’m expecting it to be pretty similar.”

In addition to a lower turnout, 2010 might see a shift in parties, Ballenger said.

In 2008, more students — and more voters in general — voted for the Obama-led Democrats. In 2006, the last gubernatorial election in Michigan, more people turned out for the Democrats as well.

This year, the Republicans already have shown their strength, Ballenger said.

“The question is not how far down is the turnout going to be this year, but how is it structured,” Ballenger said.

“Will it tilt more towards Republicans than towards Democrats? The answer, I think, is yes. The enthusiasm among Republicans and conservatives this year is high, and it’s very low and depressed among Democrats.”

However, this Republican tide might be tempered on college campuses, Ballenger said.

“Young voters are maybe a little bit less disenchanted with President Obama and the Democratic congress as other electorates,” Ballenger said.

“I would still expect the Democrats are going to carry the student vote at Michigan State … but it’s going to be close to 50-50 among student voters.

“(That’s) down quite a bit from the edge they had in 2008.”

Courting the student vote

About 1 million more citizens between the ages of 18 and 24 voted in 2008 than in 2004. This additional turnout came partially because Obama chose to campaign directly to young voters, said Maegan Carberry, a spokeswoman for the national youth registration organization Rock the Vote.

“Young people voted for Barack Obama at two to one rates in 2008, so he definitely targeted them and got results, but it works for any candidates,” Carberry said.

“(This year,) we’ve seen a lot of the leading candidates have not done a good job of targeting young voters as was done in 2008.”

Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero, the Democratic gubernatorial nominee, always has held a bond with MSU and continues to value the student vote, spokesman Cullen Schwarz said.

“(Bernero) has a very close relationship with Michigan State, given that he’s mayor right down the street,” Schwarz said.

“Younger voters are extremely important not only for their vote, but they’re often the most energetic and hardworking campaign volunteers.”

Students hold the future of the state, and keeping young voters employed and in the state is one hallmark of Ann Arbor businessman and Republican gubernatorial nominee Rick Snyder’s campaign, spokesman Bill Nowling said.

“We really need to engage this next generation to help us reinvent this state, or it’s not going to happen,” Nowling said.

“(Snyder) wants to engage young people, and he thinks he can do no better than by his pick of (lieutenant governor candidate) Brian Calley, who’s 33, and he’s the youngest attorney general candidate in a long time.”

But despite candidates’ claims, neither campaign has been aimed particularly at students, Ballenger said.

“Snyder and Bernero — it doesn’t seem to me — are making extraordinary efforts to get out young voters,” Ballenger said.

“I think Bernero has tried to some extent. He lives in Lansing (and) it’s easy to go to Michigan State, but I don’t notice that he’s running around to campuses all over the state.”

Not a “one-and-done proposition”

Despite the lack of interest, many experts argue that this is a crucially important election year, not only for the country, but for Michigan in particular.

“This year — frankly — I think for Michigan is more important than it has been in eight years and maybe longer,” Ballenger said.

“You’ve got an open seat race for governor, no incumbent running, and candidates with dramatically different backgrounds and the state in the middle of a continued economic recession.”

Part of the reason fewer students care about this election is because it has not been talked about at campus activities, in the media or in television advertising, Allan said.

But she still thinks the election should matter to citizens.

“I feel like (the election) doesn’t get the attention it probably needs, because Michigan is really suffering right now,” Allan said. “But I think it definitely is important.”

Obama said he worries young voters have become bitter toward the political process, but he still asked them to vote.

“(Young people have) got to get reengaged in this process,” Obama said in the conference. “And they’re going to have to vote in these midterms elections … because democracy is never a one-and-done proposition. It’s something that requires sustained engagement and sustained involvement.”

Even though most students are not expected to return to the polls in November, the young demographic demonstrated they could get fired up about a political election in 2008. If Obama’s election inspired a generation of voters to get involved and make their voice heard from the polling booth, it will show in two years, Ballenger said.

“Are they going to come back in 2012?” Ballenger said. “That’s the real question. And we’ll have to see.”

Staff writer Lauren McKown contributed to this report.