I'm going to do my bracket in reverse order this year. I'm going to decide ahead of time which teams match the criteria of a potential champ. Then I'll work backward to see where they'll run into trouble. In recent tourney history, there are three basic formulas:
1) A juggernaut loaded with NBA talent (UConn in 2004, North Carolina in 2005, Florida in 2006).
2) A team with one transcendent player who can ride a hot hand all the way to the title (Syracuse in 2003).
3) A scrappy defensive club with an infallible coach and a killer crunch-time guard (MSU in 2000).
Ohio State, Kansas, Florida and North Carolina fit the bill for group one. Texas is a dead ringer for group two. Texas A&M and UCLA fall into group three.
That gives me seven potential champs to choose from.
Kansas
The Jayhawks are coached by Bill Self. Isn't that enough to doom them? Do we need any more evidence than to look at Kansas' consecutive first-round exits? Any team in the West Regional could take them down, and I wouldn't be surprised in the least: Villanova or Kentucky in the second round, Virginia Tech/Illinois in the Sweet 16, or UCLA/Pitt/Duke in the Elite Eight (and Duke is terrible). This is the easiest elimination.
North Carolina
Between the Ty's (Lawson and Hansbrough), Reyshawn Terry and Brandan Wright, the Tar Heels have no shortage of talent. But they face the most loaded bracket in the tournament, and I can't see them making it out of the East alive. Not with potential matchups against Tom Izzo, Georgetown, Jared Dudley and Kevin Durant. They're out in the Elite Eight, if not sooner.
Texas
There's no way the Longhorns make an exit before the Sweet 16. They'll cruise through the first weekend without breaking a sweat. Durant will end up playing all 40 minutes against North Carolina and tossing up something like 40 points, 25 rebounds and five blocks. Seriously.
And two days later, in the Elite Eight, with 30 seconds remaining and Texas trailing by one against Georgetown, he won't touch the ball on the last possession, because apparently Texas guard D.J. Augustin hates him. Go rewatch the Big 12 Tournament. It's inevitable. Which means the Hoyas are headed to the Georgia Dome.
UCLA
There's no way the basketball gods would allow someone as ugly as Bruins' center Lorenzo Mata to make a return trip to the national title game and continue to rake in SoCal hotties. It's not happening. And since no one else in the West Regional is worth anything, Pittsburgh will sneak into the Final Four as a "we're just happy to be here" candidate.
Ohio State
There's a lot to like here: a dominant inside presence (Greg Oden), a plethora of 3-point bombers and a point guard that brings the two together (Mike Conley Jr.). The Buckeyes are a lock for the Elite Eight.
Texas A&M
The Aggies were coldhearted killers on the road this season. If they can take Texas into double overtime and beat Kansas on the road, they can survive a second-round draw with Louisville in Lexington. I'm not worried.
A week later they'll take down the mighty Buckeyes. Acie Law IV will make about eleventy billion big shots, and Billy Gillespie's defensive schemes will neutralize Ohio State.
Florida
I just can't see anyone challenging the Gators in the Midwest Region except maybe Maryland in the third round. But that's it. Florida is making it to the Georgia Dome.
Final Four: Georgetown, Florida, Pitt, Texas A&M
Georgetown is a wild card, but no team containing Patrick Ewing's DNA is cutting down the nets. The Hoyas are out, meaning Texas A&M will advance.
On the other side of the bracket, Florida's duo of Al Horford and Joakim Noah will shut down Pittsburgh's Aaron Gray, paving the path to the championship game for the Gators.
Title game: Texas A&M vs. Florida
Your two-time national champions: The Florida Gators
Wait, hold up. That wouldn't be any fun. No one wants the bad guys to win.
Your 2007 national champions:
The Aggies of Texas A&M
Ethan Conley is a men's basketball reporter. He can be reached at conleyet@msu.edu.
