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Michigan key state through November

August 16, 2004

The presidential candidates' stumping frenzy in Michigan isn't surprising, pundits say, because the state was a big target in 2000 and will again be extremely close come November.

While the ticket of Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., and Sen. John Edwards, D-N.C., has been to Michigan three times in the past month, the ticket of President Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney has made appearances seven times in the same timeframe.

"This is just what we would expect," MSU political science Professor David Rohde said. "States that aren't in doubt, like North Carolina for the Democrats or Texas for the Republicans, don't see this kind of activity because they're tilted strongly one way or the other."

In recent weeks, the Bush and Kerry camps have each taken their shot at the Democratic-leaning Detroit and the Republican stronghold of Grand Rapids. A handful of other cities, including Saginaw, Flint and Battle Creek, also hosted part of the tickets. Bush is in Michigan again today to garner support in Traverse City.

Michigan is going to see more of the candidates than almost any other state, Rohde said. He added since Ohio is so close, it makes it easy for the campaigns to blaze a trail through both states.

The Bush-Cheney ticket has targeted Ohio four times in the past month, and the Kerry-Edwards ticket has done so twice in the same period.

But it's hard to know in advance which state will decide the election, Rohde said. In 2000, it was Florida, though, many experts had made earlier predictions that states such as Michigan and Ohio would likely decide the winner.

Rohde said Michigan will continue to be inundated with presidential visits in the next few months - right up until Nov. 2

The Kerry campaign will continue to bombard Michigan because it's a key battleground site and the campaign has seen many indicators that show Democrats can win the state, Kerry spokesman Rodell Mollineau said.

"Most polls show us slightly ahead or even with Bush," Mollineau said.

A recent survey of 600 likely voters found 49 percent of those surveyed said they support the Kerry-Edwards ticket, while 42 percent say they back the Bush-Cheney campaign. Lansing-based polling firm EPIC/MRA conducted the survey.

"We're going to continue to fight for votes throughout Michigan, not just in Democratic areas. We're going to attack Republican strongholds," Mollineau said, adding Kerry's recent visit to Grand Rapids is a good example of that.

And the Bush-Cheney campaign is taking a similar approach, regional spokeswoman Merill Smith said.

"We're reaching out all across Michigan, and we're going to continue to reach out to every voter across the state," Smith said. "We realize how important and close Michigan is going to be, and that every vote counts."

The president's visit to Marquette last month is a good example of reaching out to typically Democratic voters, Smith said.

EPIC/MRA vice president Ed Sarpolus said the reason for the excess number of visits are twofold.

"With Bush being tied or behind Kerry in Michigan (in the polls), he may need Michigan in the election," he said. "Even if he doesn't win here, he needs Kerry to spend money here."

Kerry will re-evaluate his campaign's progress in securing the Democratic vote in Michigan, Sarpolus said.

"He'll wonder, 'How come we haven't closed the deal here in Michigan?'" Sarpolus said. "He has to decide whether to come here again or go elsewhere to close the deal in other states.

"Bush in the end will still come through the state because of the battle in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, because when you're trying to win in one state you want to take the state next door, too."

But Cheney, who was in town for a rally on July 16, has thus far been the only representative of either campaign to try and bolster Lansing's support.

The fact that Lansing hasn't been targeted as much as Detroit and Grand Rapids might be irrelevant, Rohde said, adding they'll be here at some point.

"It may not even be strategic, it may just be happenstance - whatever fit the schedule so far," he said. "But they'll be here, because Lansing is an important population center."

He said given the fact that Detroit and Grand Rapids are the two biggest cities in the state, it's to be expected that both candidates would spend more time there than anywhere else.

"The order in which these stops happen isn't particularly important to the campaigns," Rohde said.

Smith agreed, saying the campaign will likely make its way to the Capitol city.

"I would say, 'Stay tuned,'" she said. "Michigan is going to get a number of VIP visits between now and November."

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