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A.P. Kryza as the Oscar

A.P Kryza is The State News film reporter.

Call the bookies. Phone Vegas. The 76th Annual Academy Awards are set to air at 8 p.m. Sunday and, as of now, all bets are on.

Will the Hobbits topple the competition for Best Picture? Does Bill Murray have what it takes to beat out the formidable competition for Best Actor? Can Charlize Theron slaughter her competition for Best Actress? And will the award be renamed the A.P. once the Academy sees me on Oscar's base?

After many surprises last year ("Chicago" became one of the few musicals to take a statue), anything could happen. The following is a rundown of the nominees and predictions, with A.P.'s picks pictured at left:


Best Picture

And the nominees are: "Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King," "Lost in Translation," "Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World," "Mystic River" and "Seabiscuit."

A.P.'s thoughts: In this one, we're down to "LOTR" and "Mystic River," both of which deserve a statue. But there are no ties here. "Mystic River" seethed with humanity, a beautifully conceived and well-paced examination of loss, vengeance and humanity. "LOTR" wrapped the trilogy up beautifully, with great battles, character development and epic masterwork.

Should win: "The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King"

Will win: It'll be close, a real nail-biter this time. But I'm leaning toward "Return of the King" as a representative of the trilogy, the best of our time.



Best Director

And the nominees are: Fernando Meirelles, "City of God"; Peter Jackson, "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King"; Sofia Coppola, "Lost in Translation"; Peter Weir, "Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World"; Clint Eastwood, "Mystic River"

A.P.'s thoughts: To cut to the chase, Coppola's family legacy could work to her advantage, but she's rolling with some big dogs here. Eastwood's ability is unquestionable, and the pace and power of "Mystic River" makes him a huge contender.

But Jackson has worked his ass off for the "LOTR" trilogy, which was a technical and narrative marvel from the first film to the last.

Should win: Jackson, if there's any propriety here.

Will win: Jackson, with Eastwood poised for the upset.



Best Actress

And the nominees are: Keisha Castle-Hughes, "Whale Rider"; Diane Keaton, "Something's Gotta Give"; Samantha Morton, "In America"; Charlize Theron, "Monster"; Naomi Watts, "21 Grams"

A.P.'s thoughts: This is between Keaton, Watts and Theron. Keaton is the perennial nominee, this year's Meryl Streep, and she could very well sneak up from behind her younger competitors. Watts, who was absolutely brilliant in "21 Grams" and is enjoying an "it-girl" status as of late, certainly is worthy of recognition. But Theron will trounce the competition for her turn as serial killer Aileen Wuornos. She made a complete physical transformation that was coupled with a shocking psychological turn in "Monster," and that's the kind of stuff Oscar eats up.

Should win: Watts

Will win: Theron



Best Actor

And the nominees are: Johnny Depp, "Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl"; Ben Kingsley, "House of Sand and Fog"; Jude Law, "Cold Mountain"; Bill Murray, "Lost in Translation"; Sean Penn, "Mystic River"

A.P.'s thoughts: Depp won't win for "Pirates," but his inclusion is a step toward recognition for comedic performance. So, it's Murray and Penn. Murray has, as of late, shown a great spark for stirring performances ("Rushmore," anyone?) and he could very well walk away with a statue, were it not for Penn. Penn, an absolutely stellar actor, was mesmerizing in "Mystic River." Who would have thought that Jeff Spicoli could make you cry?

Should win: Penn

Will win: Penn



Best Supporting Actress

And the nominees are: Shohreh Aghdashloo, "House of Sand and Fog"; Patricia Clarkson, "Pieces of April"; Marcia Gay Harden, "Mystic River"; Holly Hunter, "Thirteen"; Renée Zellweger, "Cold Mountain"

A.P.'s thoughts: Harden was absolutely mesmerizing as Tim Robbins' wife in the devastating "Mystic River." But Zellweger is the "it girl" this year, and like Nicole Kidman before her, she was denied her Oscar last year for "Chicago." Though a surprise could take her statue away, she's probably going to go home a winner.

Should win: Harden

Will win: Zellweger



Best Supporting Actor

And the nominees are: Alec Baldwin, "The Cooler"; Benicio Del Toro, "21 Grams"; Djimon Hounsou, "In America"; Tim Robbins, "Mystic River"; Ken Watanabe, "The Last Samurai"

A.P.'s thoughts: This is between Baldwin and Robbins, both deserving in great performances. Robbins, though, was so good in "Mystic River" that every line that came out of his mouth was stirring. It's a great point in a brilliant career.

Should win: Robbins

Will win: Robbins

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