After losing 63-61 to No. 18 Illinois on Tuesday night, the MSU men’s basketball team was forced to add a new word to its dictionary - bubble.
Unless the Spartans win the Big Ten Tournament, they will likely be on the fringe of the 65-team pool in March’s NCAA Tournament.
“Their chances of making it would’ve been a lot better if they had three more points yesterday,” ESPN college basketball analyst Billy Packer said Wednesday.
One thing MSU has in its favor is strength of schedule.
The Spartans have played nine teams while ranked in the Associated Press Top 25, six of those games were against nonconference opponents. MSU is 4-5 against ranked teams this season.
“I’d be the first to say I hope our schedule works in our favor,” MSU head coach Tom Izzo said. “If it doesn’t, it’s insane to do it. (Our schedule) has gotta be worth something.
“We could’ve scheduled a 13-1 record, let’s face it.”
Despite the insanity of scheduling high-caliber opponents in the nonconference play, Izzo said he’ll continue to do it even if it’s at the expense of future NCAA Tournament bids.
While rumors are swirling this year’s committee is going to pay more attention to conference records instead of overall records, Packer said there is no way to know what a committee is thinking until the actual selections.
“The committee is looking at so many different phases of team play,” Packer said. “The different committees have different weights to what they think will tip the balance. When they walk into the room everyone comes with teams they automatically think should be in the tournament.”
But ESPN.com college basketball analyst Andy Katz said it’s not a rumor.
“The fact is that the selection committee is leaning toward doing away with or avoiding teams that have a sub-.500 record in their conference,” Katz said. “Even if that conference is the Big Ten.”
One thing Packer said always works in a team’s favor is that team’s strength of schedule.
“Most committee members will tell you a good loss against a major opponent is better than a blowout win,” he said.
Katz disagrees with Packer on the issue of scheduling.
“It’s not just about scheduling,” Katz said. “You have to win those games. It’s also how you finish. There are so many factors the committee tries to choose one that fits a team.”
Packer said the good news for MSU is the equation to get into the tournament is simple.
“One great thing about college basketball is the fact you do have a report card and that report card is the NCAA Tournament. No one votes you in, you earn it.
“The formula is simple, you have to win games.”
Katz’s forecast for MSU is a positive one, too.
“I think they’ll rally, end up .500 in the league and win one or two games in the tournament,” Katz said.
