Michigan legislators are beginning to look at redrafting the state’s political boundaries when Michigan’s new census figures are released next month.

According to Michigan law, after every census is completed, the political districts must be examined by state lawmakers and adjusted to meet the needs of the population.

The process has always been controversial. And with a Republican majority in the state House and Senate, the process already promises to provide turmoil, and possibly a lawsuit or two.

“We want to keep intact as many counties and cities as possible, but sometimes you have to cross county lines to pick up population,” said Andrew Richner, R-Grosse Pointe Park who serves as vice chairman of House Redistricting Committee. “Our primary concern is for one man, one vote. We will make sure we have fair lines drawn that comply with our rules and laws.”

The biggest concern among state legislators - especially Democrats - is that the lines will be altered to prevent any upsets to the current Republican majority. If the new districts are overtly Republican, the chances of a Democrat achieving victory in the upcoming 2002 elections and beyond could be slim.

Even with the term limits, which prevents members of the House to serve for more than three terms and Michigan senators to two terms, such districts could keep the Republicans in the majority and in control for up to 10 years, when the new census is completed and new lines are drawn.

According to estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau, Michigan’s population has risen by approximately 6.1 percent since the 1990 census, compared to the national average of 9.6 percent.

Some Michigan members of Congress already have hired legal counsel to prepare for any possible battles.

Even though the redistricting process has gone before state courts in the past because of conflicts, Richner said he believes it will not be a partisan issue this time.

Lawmakers will draft lines for districts for Congress, the state House and Senate and the Michigan Court of Appeals.

“Our rules are fairly clear on the fact that you can’t gerrymander those lines,” Richner said.

Although the final deadline for the new lines is November, predictions have already been made as early as last November.

“Republicans will definitely try to alter the lines to their advantage, particularly with control of the four major chambers - but there are rules and criteria to prevent that,” said state Rep. Nancy L. Quarles, D-Southfield, who serves as minority vice chairwoman of the House Redistricting Committee. “People should be concerned with it. The results of this will affect the right to representation.”

EPIC/MRA, a Lansing-based polling firm, has projected how the redistricts could be redrawn, following the shift in population. The firm held a session in November co-sponsored by the Michigan Chamber of Commerce and Michigan Information and Research Service, Inc. to discuss possible line changes.

“The expectation is that a lot of what you will see will have more to do with the population shifts and less to do with political motives,” EPIC/MRA Vice President Ed Sarpolus said. “Because of the loss of population in Detroit, they will lose districts. Those districts will be made up in Oakland and Macomb Counties or outstate.”

Sarpolus said the 8th Congressional District, which currently encompasses Ingham and Livingston counties, as well as parts of Genesee, Oakland, Shiawassee and Washtenaw, will likely shift, possibly adding the traditionally Republican Ionia and Eaton counties and losing some of it’s current space.

A new state Senate district also could possibly be created for the Lansing area to ensure representation.

Although the Republican Party will likely attempt to strengthen its position across the state, the redistricting process could cause internal turmoil, Sarpolus said.

“Despite the Republican control over all three chambers, there can still be complications in their party as they battle over their political futures,” he said.

“With term limits, the state House of Representatives will be sure that the Senate districts are drawn so they can move to Senate. And Senators will make sure the House districts will allow them to run for House seats.”

Sarpolus added that Michigan lost the 16th Congressional district, falling short by about 50,000 people because Michigan did not act as aggressively as other states to promote the census. Sarpolus said cooperation within the Democratic Party could ensure no more seats are lost to Republican districts.

“There is going to be a Democratic seat lost no matter what,” Sarpolus said. “The most the Democrats can hope for in Congress is an 8-to-7 ratio of Republicans to Democrats.”