Pa. primary results not expected to affect Obama

Even if Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., wins today’s Pennsylvania primary, political experts said Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., still has a better chance of capturing the party’s presidential nomination.

Experts said Clinton is likely to win in Pennsylvania, where she currently holds a 5.9 percent lead over Obama, according to realclearpolitics.com. Obama, however, is beating Clinton in the pledged delegates count by 168, according to CNN.

Paul Abramson, an MSU political science professor, said Pennsylvania’s demographics — a relatively small black population and mostly working class citizens — favors Clinton.

Tom Choske, communications director for the MSU chapter of Students for Barack Obama, said he thinks Obama can overcome his projected deficit. Several students from his organization are in Pittsburgh campaigning for Obama, which he said will have an impact at the polls.

“A lot of voters will make up their mind right before voting,” Choske said. “That’s what we target with our door-knocking campaign.”

Obama might not need to win Pennsylvania to win the nomination because Democrats don’t have a winner-take-all primary, meaning the distribution of Pennsylvania’s 158 delegates won’t be lopsided if the election is close. Abramson said that puts more pressure on Clinton to win by large amounts in later primaries.

“Unless Clinton does very well, Obama will have more than enough superdelegate support to win (the party nomination),” Abramson said.

Obama trails Clinton by 24 superdelegates, but Mark Grebner, a political consultant with East Lansing-based Practical Political Consulting Inc., said he expects superdelegates will continue to shift toward Obama. Grebner said only “blowout wins” for Clinton could halt Obama’s momentum.

“At some point about a month from now, everything will start sagging toward Obama, and by the time of convention it will all be over,” Grebner said. “There will be nothing to debate.”

That presents a problem concerning the status of Michigan’s convention delegates. If Obama has a slight lead, Clinton’s Michigan delegates could potentially push her ahead of Obama considering she won a majority of the state’s delegates, despite being relatively uncontested in the primary election.

Grebner, though, said the delegates aren’t an issue.

“It has always been the case that Michigan and Florida delegates will be seated as soon as no decision can be made,” he said. “They’ll seat our delegates. Yes, they will, as long as there is no decision to be made.”

If Clinton somehow loses today, Abramson said people won’t have to wait a month to find out who will be the Democratic nominee. He said Clinton “might as well concede” if Obama wins.

Should Clinton win, Abramson said Indiana’s May 6 primary becomes critical for her.

“Indiana would be killer for Clinton if she doesn’t win,” he said. “It’s expected to be relatively close, but it has some of the demographics to make it a good state for Clinton.”

Published on Monday, April 21, 2008