Note: Danny Payne is a reporter for The Daily Iowan. This is a guest analysis piece on how the No. 4 Iowa football team will beat the No. 5 MSU football team in the Big Ten Championship game on Saturday. To read The State News reporter Ryan Kryska's dueling analysis, click here.
Hi, Michigan State fans, I hope you’re doing well — should be a fun one in Indianapolis Saturday. Let’s get this out of the way right now; Michigan State is, and should be, favored in the Big Ten Championship game.
The No. 5 Spartans won the tougher of the two Big Ten divisions, and are the ones that have been to Indianapolis before, etc. However, don’t sleep on the No. 4 Hawkeyes.
We’ll get to specifics in a moment, but just know this — the Hawkeyes deserve to be here, too. Regardless of the perceived strength of schedule and the like, it isn’t easy for a team to go 12-0 — Iowa has earned every one of its wins this year.
Now, with that in mind, onto the keys.
Get to Connor Cook
Iowa hasn’t had to face a great (even good, maybe?) quarterback like fifth-year senior Connor Cook all season. For my money, the best quarterback the Hawkeyes have played is Indiana’s Nate Sudfeld. Yes, I know he’s the Big Ten’s leader in passing, but the Hawkeyes aren’t facing elite quarterbacks every week.
When healthy, Cook is one of two or three elite quarterbacks in the conference, when he’s not, he’s still a great player.
Couple that with the fact Iowa has given up a third of its total passing yards over the course of the last three games, and this should be an advantage for MSU. Iowa leads the Big Ten with 17 interceptions , but the last four of those were gift wrapped from Nebraska’s Tommy Armstrong Jr. Put simply, Iowa hasn’t been able to create interceptions coming down the home stretch.
Any team is at its best when it can put pressure on an opposing quarterback, and given the vulnerability of the Hawkeyes' passing defense as of late, making Cook uncomfortable early and often gives Iowa its best shot to win this game.
Establish the run
The difference between a Hawkeye offense with a ground game and a Hawkeye offense without a ground game is incredible. Although he’s clutch as can be and a great playmaker, quarterback C.J. Beathard hasn’t shown an ability to win games on his own.
When a combination of running backs LeShun Daniels Jr., Jordan Canzeri , Akrum Wadley , and Derrick Mitchell Jr. are clicking, the Hawkeyes are a hard team to stop. Their success means Beathard can go to his bread-and-butter — play action passes and bootlegs — to give his offense a different dimension.
The Spartan run defense is stingy, but if Iowa is able to loosen it up with the run, good things will happen for Beathard and company.
Score first
Iowa has scored first in 11 of its 12 wins, the outlier being a win at Wisconsin to open league play.
The team is much different heading into its 13th game of the year than it was in its fifth, so no one really knows how Iowa will fare playing catch up. It likely doesn’t want to find out Saturday.
Getting an early score to put the pressure on the Spartans is the best way to go about things. It’s a formula that’s won Iowa 12 games, and there isn’t a reason to stop now.
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