Once conference tournaments crown champions and brackets are set, the regular season becomes an afterthought. Records and rankings no longer matter — all that matters is which team shows up at tipoff.
Michigan State women’s basketball begins its postseason journey in Norman, Oklahoma, as the No. 5 seed in the Sacramento Region and will face No. 12 Colorado State, the Mountain West Tournament champion, in the first round. The winner will play either No. 4 Oklahoma or No. 13 Idaho for a trip to Sacramento and the Sweet 16.
No. 12 Colorado State | Lockdown Defense
Alongside a nine-game win streak dating back to Feb. 14, CSU is a team characterized by two things: ball security and a stifling defense — a mix of qualities that brought the Rams to their first NCAA Tournament since 2016.
They rank first in the nation in turnovers per game with just 10.4, while holding their opponents to just 35% shooting from the field, ranked seventh in the nation. A lockdown defense that has held opponents to just 54.9 points per game throughout the season, also good enough for seventh in the nation.
The question becomes: Will the defense stand strong against one of the best offenses in the nation?
With the Spartans averaging 83 points per game while shooting 48% from the field and 37% from 3-point range on the season, they are one of the most efficient offenses in the NCAA. All those statistics rank among the top 10 in the country, but the team has struggled since February.
At times, they were out-talented, and other times out-played, with the main culprit being offensive struggles. That was on full display in the team's past two games — an 87-68 loss to Ohio State and a disappointing Big Ten Tournament loss to Illinois.
In both matchups, MSU's offense sputtered for long stretches. Against Ohio State, they shot just 28% from the field in the first half and barely improved to 37% in the first half against Illinois.
As head coach Robyn Fralick has preached throughout the season, the team plays better when they share the ball. They rank 10th in the nation with 18.2 assists per game, and when the ball is flying across the court, it allows them to play a fast-paced, exciting brand of basketball.
A defense as talented on paper as CSU's could definitely be an issue for a struggling offense, but if the Spartans can regain their groove, they'll improve their chances of avoiding an upset.
No. 4 Oklahoma | Rebound Machine
The first thing that stands out about the Sooners is their offense — 86.7 points per game, ranking them third in the nation. Similar to MSU, it's an offense that gets everyone involved, averaging 20 assists per game, with their entire starting lineup averaging at least 10 points per game.
Nonetheless, it's arguably not even the pillar of the team's success. Instead, it's their rebounding. They bring in the most defensive rebounds in the nation, rank second in total rebounds, and eighth in offensive rebounds.
A key catalyst for this dominance is senior center Raegan Beers, who averages 15.7 points and 10.4 rebounds per game. Beers has established herself as one of the nation’s top centers, earning first-team All-SEC honors twice and third-team All-America recognition this past season.
Rebounding may be a strength for Oklahoma, but the same cannot be said for the Spartans. The combination of a high-output offense and dominant rebounding would be a tough scenario for the squad to overcome. But anything can happen — it's called March Madness for a reason.
No. 13 Idaho | Riding the Wave
Idaho is the type of team that makes March Madness great: a mid-major school riding an 18-game winning streak to qualify for its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2016.
Though the Vandals may be a smaller school, they share some similarities with their opponents.
Like Oklahoma, they dominate the glass, grabbing nearly 47 rebounds per game — ranking them fourth in the nation — and sit right near the Sooners for defensive rebounds at third in the nation. A similarity that deepens the narrative between the two squads.
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The question is whether Idaho’s offense can keep up. The Vandals have balance, with four players averaging double figures, led by junior guard Hope Hassmann at 14.2 points per game, and average 77.1 as a team. But with the Sooners scoring nearly 10 more per game, Idaho will need to capitalize on turnovers and second-chance opportunities.
Four teams with four different stories will face off in Norman this weekend, with only one advancing to Sacramento. The Spartans begin their run at 7:30 p.m. tonight against Colorado State, looking to avoid an upset and reach the second round for the second straight year. The game will air on ESPNews.
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