March is mad and the best time of year is finally upon us.
This year, maybe more than ever in recent memory, there is so much parity among the 68-team field that there are plenty of teams able to make deep runs, and Cinderellas that can make all of us scratch our head in awe.
And although my fellow basketball reporter Michael Duke is an excellent basketball mind, my picks will help you win your bracket challenge and make you the hotshot prognosticator I know you want to be.
So here’s my Final Four, along with some teams that have the ability to make a run.
South Region
Favorite: Arizona
Sleeper: Davidson
Aside from a possible bout with top-seeded Virginia in the Sweet 16, Arizona’s path to the Final Four is almost clear cut. Between 7-foot-1 freshman standout Deandre Ayton, who averages 20.3 points and 11.5 rebounds, and junior Allonzo Trier, who shoots 39.1 percent from beyond the arc, the Wildcats are one of the most potent teams offensively. I imagine if reports of potential NCAA violations in an alleged FBI probe hasn’t crumbled Arizona, not much can.
If anyone believes the 12-5 upset, Davidson is almost the surest team to pull off said upset. Yes, you might be thinking, "It’s Davidson, so there’s no chance they could steal a game from John Calipari and Kentucky, right?" But Davidson is good. They went 3-5 against top 25 teams while Kentucky is 0-4 by the same metric. Kentucky has looked average at best all season long and surged in the SEC Tournament, but if Coach Cal can’t get his Wildcats ready, we’ll be hearing a lot more about Davidson.
East Region
Favorite: Villanova
Sleeper: Wichita State
Villanova, like Arizona, has one of the best offenses in all of college basketball, led by the likes of Mikal Bridges and Jalen Brunson. The Big East Tournament champs average 87.1 points and are holding opponents to 70.9 points per game. The Wildcats, this time led by coach Jay Wright, are the top-ranked team by ESPN’s BPI and are ranked second by RPI.
West Virginia is a good team, but Wichita State performed a bit better heading into the tournament. The Shockers have four players averaging double figures and put up 83.0 points while holding opponents to 71.3 point on average. Gregg Marshall’s team is also 9-3 in its last 12 games, ranks No. 14 overall in RPI and is No. 11 in BPI.
West Region
Favorite: Gonzaga
Sleeper: Houston
Gonzaga was so close to winning the National Championship last season, but fell short in the second half of the game. But the Bulldogs are hungry, and under the radar. Gonzaga is unbeaten in its last 12, puts up 84.5 a game and holds opponents to 67.1 points. All of Zags’ starting five average double figures, and it seems like especially over the past few seasons, the Bulldogs have found relative success in March.
I don’t think Houston has what it takes to beat University of Michigan, but the Cougars can fight like hell in a game that will have plenty of interesting matchups to watch. The Wolverines aren’t the same team if you take away Moritz Wagner or the team’s 3-point shooting, and that could be a game that goes down to the final buzzer.
Midwest Region
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Favorite: Duke
Sleeper: New Mexico State
Mike Krzyzewski owns Tom Izzo. Simple as that. Even the biggest Spartan homer doesn’t have an excuse for Izzo’s 1-11 record against Coach K.
MSU has Izzo’s best team since the 2000 National Championship team, but the Spartans are in the hardest region. The Blue Devils have only gotten better, especially defensively, since these two teams squared off at the start of the season, and when either Marvin Bagley III or Grayson Allen are hot it seems like Duke is unbeatable.
The same, however, can be said for Miles Bridges, Cassius Winston or Joshua Langford, too. But we haven’t seen MSU play like a contender in some time, and until then, I don’t feel comfortable picking the Spartans.
Notice, I picked another 12-seed upsetting a fifth-seeded team. New Mexico State is a very good defensive team and holds opponents to 63.8 points.
The Aggies were the best team in a non-competitive Western Athletic Conference, but found a way to beat Illinois, Davidson and sixth-seeded Miami, which also is overrated. It’s hard to imagine the Aggies making it to the second weekend, but they will definitely be contender against a struggling Clemson team.
Final Four prediction
Arizona tops Gonzaga and Duke beats Villanova
Ayton and Trier will be too much for Gonzaga to handle. Duke will be defeated by a team led by a player named Bridges, it’s just a matter of which team. Ayton is the most dynamic player in the country, and he will lead the Wildcats to the promised land, and the future NBA lottery pick should be the difference maker past Duke’s zone.
National Champion: Arizona
