With the Michigan primaries coming up on March 8, analysts have been scrutinizing poll data to try and predict who will take home the state for the Democrat and Republican parties.
Early polls show a solid lead for Hillary Clinton on the Democratic side and Donald Trump for the Republicans. For the Democrats, Hillary’s large projected lead going in is a change from previous primaries and caucuses, where her competition with Bernie Sanders often only had her ahead by slim, single-digit margins.
Since 1972, a Democratic candidate’s victory in Michigan led to a successful nomination six out of ten times, excluding 2012 when incumbent Barack Obama ran unopposed.
On the Republican side, this measure still leans positively, with five out of eight Michigan wins preceding a nomination. George W. Bush and Ronald Reagan ran unopposed in 2004 and 1984, respectively.
A win in Michigan for Clinton or Trump could be good for both their campaigns. For Clinton, a victory in Michigan could represent a continued snowballing of her campaign after a resounding victory in South Carolina. Trump, who came second in Iowa and has won every Republican primary since, has less riding on Michigan than the other candidates.
“It will be very important,” said Matt Grossmann, director of the Institute for Public Policy and Social Research at MSU.
The Michigan primary comes a week after Super Tuesday, a day when 13 states, representing 865 Democratic delegates and 595 Republican delegates, will be decided. Success on this day is obviously crucial for candidates, and Super Tuesday’s outcome can sometimes spell out who the nominees for each party are going to be.
“On the Republican side, it switches to potential winner-take-all states like Ohio and Florida the week after,” Grossmann said. “So we will be an important step in the process in determining a Republican nominee. On the Democrat side we should still be somewhat competitive so it’ll be a hard fought race on both sides.”
Michigan can be seen as a microcosm of the national electorate. Though the state tends to lean slightly more Democratic, Grossmann said, the Republican voters in Michigan’s electorate mirror national Republican voting patterns.
“We have an old, sort of moderate business conservative constituency,” Grossmann said. “We have a social conservative constituency. ... We also have a suburban Detroit ‘country club’ Republican constituency, and just an older white voting demographic and less educated demographic that’s been Trump’s strong suit.”
Clinton’s poll leads reflects two demographic characteristics of Michigan, Grossmann said. Michigan tends to have an older number of voters on average than the national electorate, a group Clinton has done better with than Sanders. Michigan also has a high minority population, mainly black, a voting bloc that tends to poll well with Clinton.
This predictive model is mainly applicable in determining nominees. As far as what the Michigan primary says about how the general election will play out, Grossman insists people shouldn’t give the primary too much weight.
“There’s basically no relationship whatsoever between voting in primaries and voting in general elections,” Grossmann said. “It’s not a good indicator of much, other than whose likely to be the nominee of both parties.”
