Come Sunday, some of the biggest names in Hollywood will be carousing the red carpet in pursuit of one thing - the glamour, prestige and success of taking part in the 77th Annual Academy Awards. In an effort to extract the real meat of the event (i.e., the actual awards), State News film reporter Emily Buckler joined forces with Writing, Rhetoric and American Cultures Professor Gary Hoppenstand and Video To Go clerk and MSU alumnus Andy Keast to predict Oscar winners.
Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Gary - I think Jamie Foxx will win best actor; I'd be really surprised if he wins both best actor and best supporting actor. Even though his performance in "Collateral" was great, I think his performance in "Ray" is memorable and the Academy will reward him for that performance. This is one of those situations where the right actor meets the right role at the right time. Jamie Foxx is the strongest lock. I'd be really surprised if he doesn't win.
Jamie Foxx, "Ray"
Andy - Jamie Foxx will win, but for the wrong movie. He was fine in "Ray," but his cab driver in "Collateral" seemed much more real to me. He had several complex scenes in that film, and he played them flawlessly. The four other nominees simply lack the prestige that he has. The Academy also has this bizarre fascination with ailments and disabilities: autism, blindness, muteness, alcoholism, HIV, you name it, it has an Oscar. I joke, but it is the kind of role that lends itself to a win.
Jamie Foxx, "Ray"
Emily - Hands down, Jamie Foxx will win in this category. Really, I'd like to see Don Cheadle take home this award for his portrayal of Paul Rusesabagina in "Hotel Rwanda," but he's already been overshadowed by the buzz on Foxx. The hype over his portrayal of Ray Charles is huge, and Foxx won the Screen Actors Guild award for best actor, which tends to predict subsequent Oscar winners. It's a shame, however, Paul Giamatti wasn't nominated for his role in "Sideways."
Jamie Foxx, "Ray"
Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Gary - I think this will go to Morgan Freeman because he's a memorable person in Hollywood's industry; he's someone who is admired and well-liked. He's given a number of good performances in successful films and is one of the major African American actors in Hollywood today.
Morgan Freeman, "Million Dollar Baby"
Andy - Freeman is a bankable star and a respected actor, and he's likable. It's his fourth nomination, and I'm surprised he's never won. They'll give it to him for decades of smart performances, when what he really needs is a vehicle for him to win best actor. He's very much like Michael Caine in this respect.
Morgan Freeman, "Million Dollar Baby"
Emily - I'd actually like to see Thomas Haden Church get this award for his role in "Sideways." This was one of the first times audiences got to see what Church was really capable of, and I think he pleasantly surprised a lot of people. Yet, realistically, the chance of his win in this category is slim - Church is still young, and a nomination at this point seems more like a stepping stone toward better roles. That said, I think Jamie Foxx will win for his role in "Collateral."
Jamie Foxx, "Collateral"
Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Gary - It's the Hilary Swank and Annette Bening show one more time here (Bening's portrayal in "American Beauty" lost to Swank's "Boys Don't Cry" in 2000), and I think Swank will win again. It's unfortunate for Annette because she did a great job in "Being Julia," but she will come in second place once more. The pre-Oscar hype has been leaning in Swank's direction.
Hilary Swank, "Million Dollar Baby"
Andy - I just don't see anyone else winning. Hilary Swank's acting in "Million Dollar Baby" is very instinctive and physical, like something James Dean would've done. Twenty-five years ago, anyone who had read the script to "Raging Bull" claimed to know instantly that Robert de Niro would win best actor for it, only because of how arduous the role would be to play. This is very much the same thing.
Hilary Swank, "Million Dollar Baby"
Emily - Even with remarkable performances from the likes of Annette Bening and Catalina Sandino Moreno, I don't think anything can stop Hilary Swank from winning best actress for her heartbreaking role as Maggie Fitzgerald in "Million Dollar Baby."
Hilary Swank, "Million Dollar Baby"
Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Gary - This is a tough call. Virginia Madsen gave a great performance in "Sideways" and received critical acclaim for it, but it's certainly 50-50 between her and Cate Blanchett. The character that Blanchett plays in "The Aviator" is a Hollywood icon. I think Blanchett will win, but won't be surprised if Madsen takes it.
Cate Blanchett, "The Aviator"
Andy - I think they'll give it to Virginia Madsen as an umbrella prize for the whole cast. The Academy also seems to enjoy watching stars bounce back from movie oblivion. I think she should win, too. I grew up watching her in one asinine film after another; she's been a good sport for over 20 years. It's time for a payoff.
Virginia Madsen, "Sideways"
Emily - I also think that Virginia Madsen will win for "Sideways." After seeing the film, I can't think of anyone else to play her part - she brought a real, human soul to her character of Maya, which was played without the pomp and flair Hollywood thrives on.
Virginia Madsen, "Sideways"
Best Motion Picture of the Year
Gary - To use a horse racing metaphor, I think this will be a close horse race. The best picture of the year is "Sideways," but the fact that it is a romantic comedy will preclude it. Comedies don't tend to do well; they're movies that are not generally respected in this category - I think "Annie Hall" was the last that won. So it will be a close race between "Million Dollar Baby" and "The Aviator." If "The Aviator" wins, it's because it's the classic Hollywood movie made by the great director, Martin Scorsese. Yet, my money will go to "Million Dollar Baby" for best picture; if you follow pre-Oscar hype, it seems the most praiseworthy.
"Million Dollar Baby"
Andy - I've always been emphatically anti-Miramax come Oscar time because they'll inundate major categories with undeserving, mediocre films. Although financed by Miramax, "The Aviator" - as it has been directed by Scorsese - nevertheless impressed me. It has that vitality and permanence of a Golden Age Hollywood film. It feels timeless. I'd like to see "The Aviator" win; however, I think it will go to "Million Dollar Baby."
"Million Dollar Baby"
Emily - Nominated films like "Sideways" and "Finding Neverland" don't stand much of a chance next to favored nominees such as "The Aviator," "Million Dollar Baby" and "Ray." My choice for best film of the year is "Million Dollar Baby," for its sleek narrative storytelling and dramatic performances from Swank, Clint Eastwood and Freeman. What I would have liked to see nominated, is "Hotel Rwanda."
"Million Dollar Baby"
Achievement in Directing
Gary - Clint Eastwood has a very strong persona; he's highly admired. I think that Scorsese's persona is very East Coast, which has worked against him, even if he's a great director - he's not looked upon as "part of us" by the Hollywood community. It's a two-man race, and I think Eastwood will win.
Clint Eastwood, "Million Dollar Baby"
Andy - Martin Scorsese's directing is too visceral and too upsetting for either Hollywood or millions of moviegoers to earnestly embrace his films, and that's a shame. Part of me doesn't want him to ever win, if for no other reason than the directing prize has eluded several great filmmakers: (Charlie) Chaplin, (Alfred) Hitchcock, (Akira) Kurosawa, Ingmar Bergman, (Stanley) Kubrick and Peter Weir none of them ever won. Clint Eastwood is the antithesis of the current popular taste: He doesn't toy with the audience, he isn't smug or flashy, and he doesn't feed you postmodern irony or B.S.
Clint Eastwood, "Million Dollar Baby"
Emily - I can already see Eastwood getting out of his seat and walking up to the stage to accept this award. I agree Scorsese has been given the shaft throughout the years he's been nominated for "Goodfellas," "The Last Temptation of Christ," "Raging Bull" and "Gangs of New York" and never won. It would be nice to see him finally take home achievement in directing, if only to make up for more than two decades of being overlooked.
Clint Eastwood, "Million Dollar Baby"