Although Ralph Nader's Sunday announcement that he will be running as an independent in November's presidential election dismayed many Democrats, experts say he might not have a significant effect on the outcome of the election in Michigan.
Ed Sarpolus, a pollster for EPIC-MRA in East Lansing, said although Nader's running as the Green Party's nominee in 2000 undoubtedly drew votes that would have gone to Al Gore, he probably will be less successful this year.
"All our polling shows that people are quite polarized this year, more so than four years ago," Sarpolus said. "With no money, no organized support and no need for him by the voting public, he won't get much of the vote."
Sarpolus said, when a candidate runs for office a second time, he or she rarely does as well as the first time out. He likened Nader's presence in this year's race to that of an unwanted guest.
"It's basically like an in-law that never goes home," he said.
During the race four years ago, Nader campaigned aggressively on college campuses throughout the nation, stopping at MSU in the process.
Amy Gregory, a general science and education senior, said although she voted for Nader in 2000, she will vote for the Democratic nominee this year.
"Four years ago, Gore lost the election because of Nader," Gregory said, referencing the votes Nader drew in Florida, a state that ultimately decided the election.
She added that she would love to see a third-party candidate as president, but it is not one of her priorities this year.
"I will do anything to get Bush out of office," she said.
Nader's presence in the 2000 election had little effect in Michigan: Al Gore garnered 51 percent of the votes, President Bush got 47 percent and Nader received 2 percent.
But despite indications Nader will not draw a substantial amount of Michigan voters in November, Democrats are expressing concern he might appeal to some independent and liberal voters who otherwise would vote for the Democratic candidate.
"We're disappointed that he's chosen to run; however, we'll continue to go after the voters that may not vote for him," said Jason Moon, spokesman for the Michigan Democratic Party. "We're very optimistic about our chances in November."
MSU College Democrats spokeswoman Jaclyn Macek said Nader's entrance into the race might affect the way the Democrats campaign.
"I'm not sure he's going to be quite the threat he was in 2000, but he is going to make the Democratic candidates re-evaluate their position," she said.
"The most important thing is getting Bush out of office. The Democrats make that clearer than Nader."
Meanwhile, local Republicans are pleased with Nader's decision to run.
"It's definitely a positive," said Chris Paolino, spokesman for the Michigan Republican Party. "Certainly, anything that causes the Democrats to question their base is good for the president and good for us. We'll let Ralph pick his own battles."
Dirk VanderHart can be reached at vande227@msu.edu.


