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Back to basics

Expert: No.1 seeds winning in the first round is only given

March 17, 2003

Some call it mathematical, others call it luck, but in the basketball world, March Madness is fun and enjoyable chaos - all starting with the 65-team bracket.

The NCAA Committee ranks teams, and places them in four regions (East, South, West and Midwest). In each region, teams are given a seed from one-16, with one being the highest seed and 16 being the lowest.

The team seeded one will play the No. 16 seed, the No. 2 seed will square off against the No. 15 seed and so on.

If there is one thing March Madness has proven over the years, it's this: Just because a team is given a top-notch ranking doesn't mean it will go a long way in the tournament.

All in all, a big way of winning big in a March Madness pool is to get all Final Four teams correct - a task that's harder than it seems, and Billy Packer said it's just luck.

"Really, the greatest minds in the history of college basketball can never say exactly what will happen," the CBS commentator said. "But that's why we all guess."

The most top-seeded teams that have graced the Final Four since 1996 in a year has been three - and even that has only happened twice (1997 and 1999). But also since 1996, at least two No. 1 seeds have made it every season, except 1998.

But many teams have made surprise visits to the Final Four like in 2000 when two No. 8 seeds broke brackets nationwide.

Many lesser known and lower-ranked teams also raise eyebrows during the tournament. More No. 10 seeds have beaten No. 7 seeds in the last seven years and No. 12 and No. 5 seeds are almost split.

"There will be a lot of close first round games this year between five-12 and four-13 seeds," said Tony Mejia, a college basketball expert for CBSsportsLine.com. "The fours and fives aren't always that good and the 12s and 13s always surprise people.

In each of the past seven years, at least a seed of 10 or lower has reached the Sweet 16. And last year, No. 12 Missouri and No. 10 Kent State reached the Elite 8.

ESPN college basketball analyst Andy Katz said if he were instructing someone to fill out a bracket, he would say:

"Always look for the five vs. 12 and the 10/seven games which have a lot of upsets. No. 1 seeds always win the first game. Picking one, eight or nine seed to win the second games isn't that bad either. I would stress that most big midmajor upsets usually don't happen much after the first weekend."

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