College isn’t for everyone.
Year after year more collegiate basketball players come to that realization.
Leaving college early, or skipping it altogether for the NBA Draft, has become a trend in recent years. Just look at the 2000 NBA Draft as evidence, when a record 56 collegiate athletes made themselves eligible.
“Most of them are not ready,” said Ryan Blake, assistant director of NBA scouting. “A lot of them don’t know the ramifications. It’s difficult for the kids.”
So then the question is, what are the ramifications?
When people look at the NBA today, they think of Allen Iverson of the Philadelphia 76ers or Shaquille O’Neal of the Los Angeles Lakers, who both left college early.
Or maybe they reminisce about the glory days of his ‘Airness,’ Michael Jordan, who was another early entry.
Then ask MSU freshman center Zach Randolph, who made himself eligible for the 2001 NBA Draft on Wednesday, who he idolizes in the NBA and he’s quick to answer.
“I like Elton Brand, Karl Malone and Charles Barkley,” Randolph said. “They’re great power forwards in the NBA, and I model myself after them.”
They are all great power forwards who also left college early. It’s players like them who make going pro early attractive to college players. They see great college players leaving early and achieving great success at the professional levels, while making millions of dollars in the process.
However, not every collegiate player is guaranteed five regular-season MVP awards, 10 regular-season scoring titles or six NBA Championships like Jordan.
In fact, of the 303 early entries since 1991, about 35 percent (107) were not even drafted.
“Your security is back in school,” Blake said. “Get your education and further your skills at that level. You’re still learning socially and basketball skill-wise.”
No matter what experts say, or how many times they say it, once players like MSU sophomore guard Jason Richardson hear the magic words “lottery pick,” the decision becomes final.
Richardson said being a lottery pick will provide him more time with his 16-month old daughter, Jaela, and the money to take care of his family, including his mother, Elaine Richardson-Cook.
Rags to riches
In a profession in which even benchwarmers are millionaires, there’s no substitute for money.
“You can’t keep a kid from making a million dollars,” ESPN college basketball analyst Jay Bilas said.
He said how the NBA looks at the situation doesn’t matter. As long as millions of dollars are thrown at players, they’ll continue to leave early..
“The question is, ‘ready for what?’” Bilas said. “Are they ready to compete at their highest level in the NBA? No.
“Are they ready to be drafted in a high position and make a lot of money at a young age? Yeah, absolutely.”
Any player taken in the first round is rewarded with a three-year guaranteed contract worth at least $1 million each year. For lottery picks it’s considerably higher depending on the pick.
But still nearly 35 percent of all college students since 1991 who’ve made themselves eligible never get drafted.
“Some of these kids slip, and don’t get a guaranteed contract,” Blake said. “If you’re not a lottery pick for sure, why would you come out?”
MSU head coach Tom Izzo said it’s a difficult situation. He doesn’t feel the NCAA, NBA or the players benefit in the long run.
“Everyone just looks at their basketball game,” Izzo said of early entries. “Are they mentally and socially ready to go? Are they mature enough?”
The magic word seems to be maturity.
Izzo, Blake, Bilas and even Richardson and Randolph mention maturity as the final piece of the NBA puzzle.
However, it’s also the mystery piece, Blake said. It’s a quality that just can’t be measured by any statistic.
The experts agree on one thing, and that’s nobody knows when a player is ready or not.
“Michael Jordan wasn’t wrong because he left early, he wasn’t a bad person and he wasn’t turning his back on his education,” Bilas said. “Each guy has to make an individual decision.”
With that in mind, who can give a player advice on whether to stay in school or move on to the NBA?
Izzo said it’s difficult to remain objective, but added it’s part of being a head coach in today’s college basketball.
“My job is to try and give these guys the best advice I can give them,” he said. “I’m sure not going to stand in the way of (their) goals. Just like nobody stood in the way of my dreams and goals.”
Part of the decision-making process is talking with the teams and draft experts. But the problem with that is nobody knows what everyone else is going to do.
“There is a committee who tries to best evaluate where a player may go,” Blake said. “The emphasis is on ‘may’ - mock drafts are never exactly right.”
No matter what everyone says about a players’ draft status, it always comes back to the money.
“For some guys that’s more important than other things,” Bilas said. “But if you’re making a decision solely on money it’s often misplaced.
“Money is always a factor. People who think it’s not are naive.”
Learning curve
The increase of college players leaving early for the NBA draft has changed the game at both the NBA and NCAA level.
The NBA just recently passed a series of new rules that will be tested during summer league play. These new rules, most notably the legalization of zone defense, will make the transition on college players easier whenever they choose to make the jump to the NBA.
“With the younger kids you’re definitely developing and teaching more in the NBA now,” Blake said. “It’s hard to say whether it’s good or bad for the league, but the NBA wants these kids to stay in school.”
The NCAA would also like to see players stay in school, which could make the jobs of head coaches easier.
“It makes (college basketball) more of a year-by-year thing,” Bilas said. “It used to be you could build a program with your eye on what it would be three or four years down the road. You can’t do that anymore.
“You’ve got to prepare to win now. You can’t rely on players to stay to be juniors and seniors.”
Bilas said all the elite programs have to deal with the issue. He said it puts more emphasis on recruiting and coaches have to become more than technicians in college basketball.
As a coach, Izzo said it’s just something that has to be accepted. If a coach refuses to accept it, his program won’t get the top players.
“Players want to go where they can play immediately, start immediately and star immediately, so they can run off to the NBA,” he said.
Blake said once those players make it to the NBA they need to realize they’re no longer the superstars. He said the learning curve can be too much for some.
“A lot goes with confidence as well,” Blake said. “When you lose your confidence it’s hard to get it back.
“It’s all about how much a kid really wants it.”
To see when the early entries have affected the game, look at the All-America teams. The 2000 Associated Press All-America team featured just one senior, Duke’s Shane Battier. The other four were underclassmen.
Bilas said it’s because the younger players are being forced to step up as teams fill holes from early entries. He said it’s just the way the game is now and the NCAA can’t do anything about it.
The lucky number
Besides every underclassman simultaneously deciding to stay in college, the only remaining factor with any power to put a stop on collegiate athletes leaving early is the NBA.
During the past few years, talks of a minimum age requirement of 20 has been proposed. That may keep freshmen like Randolph in school, but the door would still be open for juniors and some sophomores.
“It would pass antitrust buster if they did it as part of the collective bargaining process with the union,” Bilas said. “But they won’t do it. They’d have to give up too much and they won’t do it.”
Blake affirmed that has been talked about, adding the NBA does see it as a problem. However, he said it doesn’t look likely.
Following a lawsuit, the NBA was forced to allow underclassmen who displayed financial hardship to declare for the draft early in 1971.
The first year it was a separate six-player draft, but in 1972 the underclassmen were thrown into the regular NBA Draft. North Carolina junior Bob McAdoo set the tone for the future by becoming the No. 2 overall pick.
In 1976 the hardship requirement was dropped and any underclassman who thought himself ready could declare, and in 1979, MSU sophomore Earvin “Magic” Johnson became the first underclassman to be selected with the No. 1 overall pick.
Moe Smedley, Randolph’s coach at Marion High School in Marion, Ind., said he supports Randolph’s decision, but believes an age limit must be imposed.
“Now I hear rumors about high school kids skipping their senior years to go to camps that prepare them for the NBA,” he said. “How far down do we go?”
Since Darryl Dawkins became the first to skip college in 1975, 10 others have followed suit and at least two have already declared for the 2001 NBA Draft.
Jan Jankowsik, assistant director of public relations for the NCAA, said there’s nothing the NCAA can do about any of it. He said the only thing it can do is provide guidance.
“We certainly encourage young men and women to get as much information as they can,” he said. “We have legislation that allows individual campuses to provide council to student athletes.”
MSU does have an athlete support services department, but Randolph doesn’t feel that’s the solution.
“Maybe loans or something,” he said. “Offer student loans to athletes and maybe they’ll stay.”
Both the NBA and NCAA college basketball are multimillion dollar industries. The players know it, and they want their piece.
“This is my dream,” Randolph said. “A lot of people don’t get this opportunity.”
