Breaking down Couture/Lesnar

So we’re less than 24 hours away from the start of “UFC 91: Couture vs. Lesnar” and I finally feel confident enough to break this thing down.

Now, let me preface all this by saying this as about as hard of a fight to break down as I’ve ever seen. There are so many variables to deal with here.

Randy Couture and Brock Lesnar are at a crossroads right now. Regardless of the outcome, I am anticipating an extremely tactical battle — it has to be for both men.

Now, for Couture to win this fight and retain his heavyweight championship, he’ll have to do these things:

• Wear Lesnar down in the clinch against the cage.
• Effectively use his dirty boxing to test Lesnar mentally.
• Not end up on his back.
• Avoid Lesnar’s main threat on the feet — his big (size 4XL gloves) right hand has knocked both Frank Mir and Heath Herring to the canvas early in the fight.
• Push the pace of the fight.
• Have a sound game plan.
• Put Father Time in his place one more time.

In an interesting move, Couture weighed in at 220 pounds. For his last fight at UFC 74 against Gabriel Gonzaga, he weighed 228.5. Let me tell you, this is not by chance. Couture knows he’ll need every single possible advantage he can get for this one, so weighing in less will afford him a bit more speed and agility at his age.

Now, here are Lesnar’s keys:

• Couture has never been known for having a lot of power standing, so work the strikes and try to set up the takedown.
• Smother Couture on the ground, but stay smart and keep him on his back. While Couture has never been a Frank Mir (submission-wise) on the ground, I’m sure he has some tricks up his sleeve if need-be.
• Stay off the cage and continue to circle while on the feet.
• Be well-prepared to go to the later rounds.

I’ve been struggling with a pick on this one for a while now. How Lesnar has progressed since his last fight will be a big factor. Likewise, how Couture has handled his long lay-off, combined with his age, is another big factor.

The betting lines (for entertainment purposes only) are showing Lesnar as the favorite in this one. Randy Couture is something ridiculous like 9-1 as the underdog.

This may be a homer pick as Couture is my favorite all-time fighter, but I’m going to go with “The Natural” by TKO in the third round.

Come midnight tomorrow, I’ll probably be a nervous wreck, but as I always say: should be a good one!