Officials: Avian flu vaccine will cover 2 percent of population

By Jon Styf (Last updated: 08/28/09 6:16pm) The government hasn't stockpiled enough of the only drug known to be effective against avian influenza but is in "aggressive discussions" with its maker to buy more, federal health officials said Thursday.

Enough Tamiflu to treat 2.3 million people is in a national stockpile set aside in preparation for the next flu pandemic - a worldwide outbreak that influenza specialists fear could be triggered by the increasingly worrisome avian influenza in Asia.

"There are simmering reports about China and Vietnam of people dying, animals dying," said Dean Sienko, medical examiner at the Ingham County Health Department. "Many eminent scientists say it's not a matter of 'if' but 'when.'"

Any flu strain could mutate to cause a pandemic. But Asia's avian influenza - particularly the H5N1 strain - is of concern because people's immune systems have never had to battle it.

The World Health Organization, or WHO, has confirmed the infection in 108 people since January 2004; the vast majority of patients caught it from birds. Scientists are watching to see if the strain begins mutation in a way that lets it spread easily among people.

Negotiations are under way to buy enough Tamiflu pills for an additional 2 million people, with more purchases possible later.

That still would cover only 2 percent of the population, well short of WHO recommendations that countries set aside enough Tamiflu for one-quarter of their people, said Rep. Tom Davis, R-Va.

"Let me do the math for you: We're about 62 million people short under the WHO guidelines," Davis said during a meeting of his House Government Reform Committee.

Other lawmakers wondered why the U.S. is not stockpiling as much as other countries. Manufacturer Hoffmann-La Roche Inc. said Britain, France, Finland, Norway, and New Zealand are placing orders that would cover between 20 percent and 40 percent of their populations.

With today's stockpile, "certainly we don't have enough," said Anthony Fauci, the National Institutes of Health's infectious disease chief.

Sienko said chicken eggs are needed to help create the vaccine.

"This type of influenza vaccine is hard to manufacture - (it takes) roughly about six months," he said.

Other countries are depending on Tamiflu, but the U.S. also is stockpiling vaccine and would use Tamiflu more to buy time until more inoculations could be made, said Bruce Gellin of the National Vaccine Planning Office.

The government plans on buying 2 million doses of an experimental H5N1 vaccine. The first studies of the shot in people began in April.

Efforts to fund more production of all flu vaccines - not just avian influenza - have also been made. This need was highlighted last fall when problems cost the nation half its annual supply.

Vaccines are stockpiled at strategic Centers for Disease Control sites, Sienko said. Ingham County stockpiles, however, hold only anti-viral medication.

"Everybody's eyes are on what's happening in Asia," Sienko said. "This would be a very bad situation on the planet."

Staff writer Lindsey Poisson contributed to this report.

Originally Published: 07/05/05 12:00am