Wednesday, July 3, 2024

Disaster inevitable, so why worry

February 15, 2012
	<p>Pearson</p>

Pearson

In November 2011, the asteroid YU55 soared between Earth and the moon’s orbit, just over 200,000 miles away from colliding with our planet.

If it had hit, we would’ve seen a 4-mile-long crater and experienced the equivalent of a magnitude 7 earthquake — or, if the asteroid had landed in the ocean, a 70-foot-high tsunami.

All this from a chunk of rock about as long as a lap around the track.

The universe is a dangerous place. In addition to the countless asteroids roaming around out there, we have observed exploding supernovas, dying stars and colliding galaxies. If events such as these happened in the neighborhood of the Milky Way, we’d be in trouble.

The general response to this sort of thinking is to laugh and make science fiction movies. Our brains simply aren’t designed to care about issues so astronomically unlikely or distant.

Studies have shown people tend to analyze risk more emotionally than rationally, and completely irrelevant factors might play a major role in our perception of danger. For example, a 2011 study linked subjects’ prediction of a negative outcome with the speed of the event. Basically, if bad things happen fast — think plane crashes — rather than slow — think celestial bodies drifting — we’re much more afraid of them.

But if “Armageddon” and “Deep Impact” have taught us anything, it’s the value of being prepared for the worst.

Fortunately, we have people looking out for our planet. And I’m not just talking about environmentalists.

For instance, Pan-STARRS — the Panoramic Survey Telescope & Rapid Response System — is a planned group of cameras and telescopes that will keep a constant lookout for Earth-approaching objects. Although galaxy bursts and the death of the sun — the one doom we know for certain — would never occur in our lifetime, an asteroid impact could sneak up on us at virtually any time.

Michigan State University’s Dr. Brian O’Shea, whose own research is on galaxies and how they form, knows a thing or two about this risk.

“It’s not inconceivable that it could happen in very short order — in our lifetimes,” he says of an asteroid collision with Earth. “It’s one of those risks where it’s very low probability, but if it happens, it’s catastrophic.”

That’s kind of the linchpin of this whole end-of-the-world business. Chances are, nothing will happen, at least not for a long time. But those fractional percentages, even if our brains disregard them, could add up to a major catastrophe sometime in the future.

Fortunately, says Dr. O’Shea, even though asteroids are the most likely threat, they are also the one we have some control over.

Pan-STARRS may have an eye out for impending space rocks, but what will we do if they spot one heading our way?

Thanks to the research of astrophysicists, we have a few options.

Essentially, there are two components to dodging asteroids: spotting them and having the technology ready to bat them away if necessary.

A solution that should sound familiar if you’ve watched enough movies would be to make a directed explosion on one side of the asteroid, thus altering its orbit and sending it on a different path. In a similar vein, attaching an ion engine, which would apply a small force over a longer period of time, could be sufficient to divert an approaching dinosaur-destroyer.

Without researchers on guard, we would be left to the whims of the universe. But with this alert, if small, and group of scientists watching our back, we earthlings can go about our daily lives without much to fear.

However, there needs to be someone to take the reins. The generation raised on low-budget sci-fi may be at the helm now, but without an emphasis on science education and an understanding of the necessity for vigilance, we might find ourselves as unprepared as old T-Rex.

“Outside of the asteroids, there’s pretty much nothing you can do,” admits Dr. O’Shea. “But that’s okay.” Any world-ending event is either highly unlikely or not going to happen for a very long time. “So there’s no use getting bent out of shape over it.”

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Instead, the best thing to do is keep training our future physicists and let them handle it. Leave doomsday to the experts.

Or, if you’re interested, brush up on your ion engine design, because there might come a day when we’re going to need it.

Craig Pearson is a State News guest columnist and a biochemistry junior. Reach him at pears53@msu.edu.

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