Fifteen games into the season and the latter seems much closer than the former.

In the Spartans’ first four losses, the excuses of tiredness, injuries or quality competition could help fans sleep at night.

But Saturday’s 66-62 loss at Penn State only solidified what many have feared all season: The Spartans aren’t a national contender and might not be a contender in the Big Ten.

The turnover problems have not been solved (33 in three Big Ten games), the free throws haven’t improved (shooting 55 percent in Big Ten play) and the patented MSU rebounding game hasn’t been as strong as it usually is (out-rebounded by opponents in five games this season).

And with the offense seeming out of sync for most of the season, the upcoming schedule looks even more daunting. The Spartans’ next four games are home against Wisconsin and Northwestern followed by road trips to ranked foes Illinois and Purdue.

In a season that quickly has seen MSU go from preseason Final Four lock to potentially unranked, the Spartans are at a turning point.

The losses of Raymar Morgan and Chris Allen cannot be undervalued.

For all his inconsistencies, Morgan’s physical abilities made him a nightmare matchup for opponents and his graduation has left a hole in the small forward spot, where head coach Tom Izzo can either play a guard and give up size or play a big man and give up speed.

There can be little doubt the offseason departure of Allen was good for the Spartans with his off-the-court issues, but his on-the-court experience and skills have been hard to replace.

For all of the physical skill freshmen Keith Appling and Adreian Payne have, both are being given a lot of responsibility for freshmen.

If you had listened to Izzo after Thursday’s practice, you would have thought the Spartans would roll over the Nittany Lions.

Izzo had nothing but positive things to say, including that junior guard Korie Lucious couldn’t miss a shot. On Saturday, Lucious air-balled on a wide-open 3-point shot and missed a late layup in a 5-point, two-turnover performance.

Izzo said the Spartans have practiced great in recent weeks, but if those practice performances don’t translate into game success soon, the Spartans could be in the unthinkable position of being a bubble team.

As has been said all season, if there’s one team and one coach that can turn things around when they count, it’s Tom Izzo and the Spartans.

Last season, I was convinced the Spartans would fall in an early round of the NCAA Tournament. They hadn’t been in sync in the second half of Big Ten play and seemed to be a mess as the tournament began.

They nearly fell in each game, but they came together as a team at the right time when faced with the adversity of losing then-junior guard Kalin Lucas to a ruptured Achilles’ heel.

Now with the adversity of a season gone awry, the Spartans need to look to each other to regroup and turn things around.

If they don’t, they’ll be fighting for much more than the program’s reputation.

Chris Vannini is a State News sports reporter. He can be reached at vanninic@msu.edu.