Louisville, Ky. — It’s been four seasons since MSU and Kentucky met in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. That game, played in Chicago, saw the Spartans advance to their second straight Sweet 16 with a 67-63 win.
Neither team is the same. The stakes, though, are unchanged. One school advances to Kansas City to play in the Sweet 16. The other has its season ended.
Here is how these two schools match up:
Backcourt
Freshman guard Jasmine Thomas looked good against Bowling Green on Saturday, but she wasn’t the most impressive freshman at Freedom Hall — not by a long shot.
SEC Freshman of the Year A’dia Mathies, a Louisville native, torched Liberty to the tune of a career-high 32 points on 9-of-15 from the field and 12-of-17 from the foul line. Mathies, though, came into the game averaging 13.2 points, so getting a repeat performance isn’t a lock.
Her backcourt mate, Amber Smith, isn’t as much of a scoring threat, but is a very solid distributor, averaging 4.5 assists per game.
Kentucky likes to keep consistent pressure and that is going to force MSU’s point guards to play a smart, levelheaded game.
Both Thomas and junior guard Brittney Thomas need to make an impact. They will have to score for MSU to be successful.
Advantage: Even
Frontcourt
The Spartans hold a decisive advantage here. Kentucky was absolutely demolished inside by Liberty. The numbers were staggering: Minus-12 on the boards, 54 points in the paint and 19 second-chance points.
Meanwhile, the Spartans were plus-7 against Bowling Green and scored 24 more points in the paint than the Falcons.
Senior center Allyssa DeHaan holds a 7-inch height advantage over anyone who sees regular playing time. Despite that height disadvantage, 6-foot-1 forward Victoria Dunlap leads Kentucky in scoring at 17.6 points per game.
If MSU is going to turn the ball over a lot, it has to control the glass in a big way, something it is capable of doing against the Wildcats, who hold only a plus-0.3 rebounding edge.
MSU needs to pound the ball inside and make Kentucky pick up fouls and get to the line.
Advantage: MSU
Bench
Senior center Lauren Aitch and junior forward Kalisha Keane usually give MSU a big time one-two punch off the bench, but Keane has struggled as of late. Still, Aitch and defensive stopper Cetera Washington give the Spartans a big lift. Sophomore guard Porschè Poole has been effective at times this season but played only five minutes — none in the second half — against Bowling Green.
For Kentucky, only two players saw more than seven minutes off the bench. Between the four, they scored nine points. Against a deep MSU team, the Wildcats will need better contributions.
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If Keane gets going, Kentucky might be in trouble. And if Aitch can help get Dunlap in foul trouble, that is going to put some heat on the Wildcats’ little-used post reserves.
Advantage: MSU
Prediction: MSU 69, Kentucky 65
