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NBA draft pick projections

June 25, 2008

Here’s a projection of what each team will do in the first round of tonight’s NBA draft. The picks are predicated on personal research and evaluations from scouts across the NBA. Send your feedback to Altmanal@msu.edu.

1) Chicago Bulls — Derrick Rose (Guard — Memphis): As of Wednesday, the Bulls’ front office personnel still claimed they haven’t decided between Rose and former Kansas State star Michael Beasley. If that’s true — and I highly doubt it is — the Bulls should draft Rose and run out of Madison Square Garden like they just stole something. It’s still amazing to me that Chicago has the number one pick.

2) Miami Heat — Michael Beasley (Forward — Kansas State): Here’s where things get interesting. Beasley is clearly the best prospect on the board, but head coach Pat Riley reportedly questions his professionalism and work ethic. Plus, with Shawn Marion under contract for another year, you wonder whether Beasley plays a position of need. Miami loves Southern California guard O.J. Mayo, but there’s a significant drop-off in talent between him and Beasley. Miami isn’t in a position to concede talent.

3) Minnesota Timberwolves — O.J. Mayo (Guard — Southern California): Minnesota desperately needs a guard who can penetrate and create his own offense, and Mayo did that in excess during his freshman season at USC. He and forward Al Jefferson would give the Timberwolves a nice one-two punch for the next several years.

4) Seattle SuperSonics — Jerryd Bayless (Guard — Arizona): Bayless is the athletic combo guard the Sonics have lacked the last few seasons. He’s not a true point guard, and considering he’s a generous 6-foot-3, that’s cause for concern. But in the end, his dynamic scoring and basketball savvy are strengths that are too intriguing to pass up.

5) Memphis Grizzlies — Kevin Love (Center — UCLA): Love’s lack of athleticism will impede him from ever becoming an all-star; but his rebounding, passing and scoring presence in the low block make him a solid prospect at the hardest position to find good players. He could be a 10-10-5 this season.

6) New York Knicks — Russell Westbrook (Guard — UCLA): It’s no secret the Knicks need a point guard, but with the sixth pick, it’s too early to take Texas’ D.J. Augustin and too late for Rose or Mayo. The pick won’t be sexy enough to placate furious Knicks fans, but Westbrook is a game changer on both ends of the court. He’s worthless offensively in a half-court set, but in new head coach Mike D’Antoni’s up-tempo, transition offense, he’ll be a catalyst.

7) Los Angeles Clippers — Eric Gordon (Guard — Indiana): Gordon is another combo guard who would likely have been a top-three pick if he didn’t hit a wall near the end of last season; but considering the chaos that swirled around Indiana’s program, I can’t really blame him for struggling down the stretch. Boasting a rare combination of size and quickness, Gordon has the tools be an all-star in this league — the Clippers could use one of those.

8) Milwaukee Bucks — Brandon Rush (Guard — Kansas): It’s about time for the Bucks to cease their infatuation with overrated foreign big men and draft a proven player who can slash, score and speak English. With Italian swingman Danilo Gallinari dangling on the board, new general manager John Hammond might be tempted to indulge; but if he learned anything from his former employer Joe Dumars, it’s that European imports come with a high level of risk. Despite having limited upside, Rush is a sure thing, a safe pick, and will be an immediate impact player.

9) Charlotte Bobcats — Brook Lopez — (Forward — Stanford): The Bobcats need a low-post scorer in the worst way, and Lopez fits that bill. He and former first overall pick Emeka Okafor should give the Bobcats a nice pair of big men to build upon as they continue to rebuild.

10) New Jersey Nets — Joe Alexander (Forward — West Virginia): Alexander became one of my favorite college basketball players during last season’s NCAA Tournament. He’s a very polished post player with a solid jump shot inside 15—feet and a mean streak. Some scouts say he looks confused on the court at times, but he didn’t look confused to me during the tournament.

11) Indiana Pacers — D.J. Augustin (Guard — Texas): I still feel this is too early for Augustin to come off the board, but the Pacers need a point guard and I love Augustin’s feel for the game. Augustin was one of the my favorite college players last season, but he’s destined to be a career backup in the NBA: Undersized point guards lacking elite quickness never materialize in the NBA.

12) Sacramento Kings — Danilo Gallinari (Forward — Italy): If Gallinari is still on the board when the Kings pick, I’ll be tempted to hop a plane down to the West Coast and party with the Maloof brothers because the Cristal would definitely be popping at this celebration. Scouts abroad love Gallinari, and with the 12th pick, he’s no longer a reach.

13) Portland Trail Blazers — Anthony Randolph (Forward — Louisiana State): After generating a lot of attention early in the draft process, Randolph’s stock has plummeted significantly over the last couple weeks, mainly due to poor workouts and frightening measurables. He checked in at 6-foot-10 and only 197 pounds. Despite his flaws, scouts agree he has tremendous upside and could be a Chris Bosh-type player in a few years. A young team like Portland can afford to wait.

14) Golden State Warriors — Kosta Koufos (Center — Ohio State): The big Greek center has reportedly turned a lot of heads during workouts by outplaying some of the more highly touted centers. Despite being born in Ohio, Koufos fits the bill of a typical international center. He’s 7-feet-tall, but would rather camp out on the perimeter and beat teams from long-range. He’ll have some trouble scoring and defending in the paint, but should be able to stretch the Warriors’ explosive offense.

15) Phoenix Suns — Donte Greene (Guard — Syracuse): To me, this pick is a no-brainer. Greene was born to run, and unless new head coach Terry Porter decides to change his team’s culture drastically, he’d be a perfect fit for the Suns’ up-tempo offense.

16) Philadelphia 76ers — Jason Thompson (Center — Rider): The 76ers have a glut of solid perimeter—oriented players, but very little bang inside. Thompson, who was a productive inside scoring threat for four seasons in college, could help change that. The lack of competition he played at Rider is an appropriate concern, but the numbers he produced there don’t lie.

17) Toronto Raptors — Alexis Ajinca (Center — France): Chris Bosh can’t do it all himself. The “EuroRaptors” need to find their star some help in the paint, and the 7-foot Frenchman is the best candidate to do that.

18) Washington Wizards — Darrell Arthur (Forward — Kansas): I’m not sure there’s a more undervalued player in this entire draft than Arthur. Arthur was a victim at Kansas because his talents weren’t as exposed and publicized as they would have been if he played on a team without such a star-studded roster. Arthur can shoot, rebound and defend — what else do you want in your power forward?

19) Cleveland Cavaliers — Roy Hibbert (Center — Georgetown): The Cavs are looking for someone who can fill a niche, and Hibbert can do that for them as a backup center. Hibbert would only be effective on a handful of teams because he lacks mobility and athleticism, but he’s strong, has good size and simply knows how to play around the basket. Cleveland’s half-court offense is tailored to his strengths.

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20) Denver Nuggets — Robin Lopez (Center — Stanford): It’s time for the Nuggets to find a player who can succeed the aging Marcus Camby at center down the road, and at this point in the draft, Lopez is the guy who’s most equipped to do that. Lopez is limited offensively, but he’s athletic and a good rebounder.

21) New Jersey Nets — Marreese Speights (Center — Florida): If Speights was selected here, it would mean that centers were selected with five of the last six picks, which is extremely rare. Speights’ upside might be too difficult to pass up here — he probably would’ve been a lottery pick if he stayed at Florida for another season.

22) Orlando Magic — Chris Douglas—Roberts (Guard — Memphis): Orlando would benefit from adding depth inside, but there’s not a big man worth picking here anymore. Too many of Orlando’s guards are one—dimensional, 3-point specialists. Douglas—Roberts excels at penetrating, which would give the Magic some needed versatility in their backcourt.

23) Utah Jazz — Mario Chalmers (Guard — Kansas): This would be a disappointing drop for Chalmers, who could just as easily be a late lottery pick. Chalmers is a good scorer and clutch performer. He won’t be a star, but he’ll immediately crack head coach Jerry Sloan’s rotation.

24) Seattle SuperSonics — Nicolas Batum (Forward — France): General manager Sam Presti loves drafting foreign—born players and Batum is an intriguing prospect. He has great size and athleticism, but needs some time to develop. The woeful Sonics can afford to wait.

25) Houston Rockets — DeAndre Jordan (Center — Texas A&M): The Rockets don’t have any glaring needs, so at this point in the draft, they should select the best player. Jordan is a local kid with enormous upside.

26) San Antonio Spurs — JaVale McGee (Center — Nevada): The Spurs are in a similar position to Houston. They don’t have any glaring holes, but they need to get younger players. McGee is an athletic center who could groom under the tutelage of Tim Duncan.

27) Portland Trail Blazers — Ryan Anderson (Forward — California): The Blazers would be wise to add another guard to their rotation, but with another pick early in the second round, they can afford to take the best player on the board with this pick. Anderson was a dominant scorer in a good conference.

28) Memphis Grizzlies — J.J. Hickson (Forward — North Carolina State): After drafting Love with the fifth pick, Memphis should continue to bulk up their frontcourt with Hickson. Hickson should have stayed in college for another year to improve his jump shooting, but he has the skills to be a solid rotational forward down the line.

29) Detroit Pistons — Bill Walker (Forward — Kansas State): If it weren’t for his chronic knee problems, Walker could be a top-five pick. He’s an explosive, enormously gifted prospect that hasn’t been able to put it all together because he can’t stay on the court. In my opinion, Walker needs an entire year to rehab, but the Pistons have enough talent to wait out his return.

30) Boston Celtics — Kyle Weaver (Guard — Washington State): Weaver fits the mold of a Boston Celtics guard. He’s tenacious, energetic and defensive-minded. His offensive skills are sparse, but he’s the kind of feisty competitor that head coach Doc Rivers covets.

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