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Unemployment rate may keep rising

December increase could mean not as many jobs in 2007

January 22, 2007

Michigan's unemployment rate jumped in December, and analysts predict the rate will continue to rise.

Growing to 7.1 percent, the rate tops the 2006 average of 6.8 percent and the 2005 average of 6.7 percent.

"We expect this to continue into 2007 and 2008," said Becky Ross, a senior economist for the state House Fiscal Agency. "It's mainly driven by the troubles or difficulties with (General Motors Corp.) and (Ford Motor Co.) and suppliers in the vehicle industry."

The state House Fiscal Agency reported that Michigan's unemployment rate could reach 7.4 percent this year and 7.8 percent by 2008. For the last six years, Michigan's employment has been on the decline because of a loss in auto manufacturing jobs, Ross said.

Interdisciplinary studies in social science junior Kayla Benard said Michigan's unemployment rate is a reason to move out of the state.

"Michigan's economy is declining every day," she said. "Factories are moving to Mexico, and Michigan is too dependent on the auto industry."

There is a correlation between the unemployment rate and the demise of the manufacturing industry, said Bruce Weaver, an economic analyst with the Michigan Department of Labor & Economic Growth.

Job growth in Michigan was strong in the professional business services sector, up by 17,000 jobs, along with education and health services, both of which were up by 10,000 jobs, Weaver said. However, the manwufacturing and retail trade industries were down by 39,000 jobs and 13,000 jobs, respectively.

"Most of that drop is related to the auto industry and the restructuring of jobs in the industry," Weaver said. "Michigan just has a much higher share of jobs, and the problem is high unemployment rate."

Michigan's economy is struggling because of its dependency on the auto industry and failure to transition into a technology-based future, said MSU economics Professor Charles Ballard.

"I don't think manufacturing will disappear, but the growth opportunities are in other fields, many of which require many skills," he said. "Michigan needs to improve education."

However, more funding toward higher education is unlikely in Michigan, with a combined deficit of nearly $920 million in the state's general and school-aid funds.

"In the last several years, there have been numerous cuts in higher education," Ballard said. "I would like to see us have our education system produce the kind of highly skilled workers that can fit into the jobs of the future, not just the jobs of yesterday."

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