Rick Comley doesn't claim to be a soothsayer, but he made a prediction Saturday night: The MSU hockey team is in big trouble.

After the Spartans dropped a lackluster 4-2 decision to Northern Michigan on Saturday, the MSU head coach said he doubts his team can still get an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament.

"I couldn't imagine (getting in) now unless we win the CCHA Tournament," Comley said. "You never know. Funny things happen, I guess. But last year, we had 26 wins at Northern and didn't make it.

"We only have 18 right now and not as many games to play."

MSU, which climbed into a 15th-place tie in the Pairwise Rankings after Friday's 7-4 win over Northern, slipped back into a tie for 16th after the loss. The Spartans (18-12-2 overall, 14-9-1 CCHA) have four regular-season games remaining, and it appears they will have to move up to No. 14 or higher in the Pairwise to get an at-large bid.

"For the last two months, we've been going out and saying to ourselves, 'It's almost do-or-die. We've got to pretty much win every game,'" senior defenseman John-Michael Liles said. "I think we're still looking at the rest of this season pretty much the same way."

Despite the split, the Spartans held on to fourth place in the CCHA standings. Had they swept Northern (16-14-2, 12-11-1), they would have leapfrogged Ohio State into third place.

But it wasn't meant to be for MSU, which allowed the Wildcats to overcome a 42-15 shot disadvantage in front of 6,653 fans Saturday - the 300th consecutive regular-season sellout crowd at Munn Ice Arena.

After MSU staked a 2-1 lead in the first period, Northern goaltender Craig Kowalski blanked the Spartans in the second and third. He made 40 saves overall to keep the out-chanced Wildcats ahead.

Further hindering MSU's comeback bid was the absence of sophomore center Jim Slater. MSU's second-leading scorer injured his left shoulder when he crashed into the boards early in the third. He didn't return to the game and is listed as day-to-day.

But the Wildcats truly took control of the game by scoring on two of their four shots in the second. They took a 3-2 lead into the second intermission and iced the game with a goal 1:08 into the third.

It was the second straight night MSU built a lead in the opening frame, only to squander it in the second. Afterward, the players couldn't explain how the meltdowns are happening with so much on the line at this stage of the season.

"To be honest, I can't tell you," sophomore center Lee Falardeau said. "I don't know what it was. The intensity or something just dropped off a little bit in the second period. We still got chances, but I think they were working a little harder than we were."

The unpredictable Spartans steadily climbed up the CCHA standings in January, but they have stalled of late. They have split their last three series, and are all but mathematically eliminated from winning the regular-season crown.

If MSU sweeps No. 10 Michigan this weekend and Western Michigan on March 7-8, and first-place Ferris State goes without a point in its last four games, the Spartans could share the title.

But the Spartans admit it will be tough to even catch second-place U-M (six points ahead) or the Buckeyes (three ahead) after Saturday's loss.

"We've had a good streak going," Comley said. "But I thought tonight was a poor effort the whole game. Even outshooting a team as badly as we did, I thought it was a very poor effort. Not lack of trying, just not good enough.

"All weekend, I thought we fought lack of emotion."

Saturday's game was the first time since Dec. 7 against Ferris that MSU lost the second game of a weekend series. It was also the first time Northern won in East Lansing since 1985.

In Friday's series-opening win, the Spartans jumped out to a 3-1 first-period lead only to see it dissipate into a 3-3 tie by the second intermission. But Falardeau and freshman defenseman Corey Potter tallied early in the third and Slater and freshman left wing David Booth scored empty-netters to seal the win.

Falardeau also scored Saturday. His two goals this weekend matched his total from the previous 30 games this season.

MSU sophomore goaltender Matt Migliaccio made 27 saves in Friday's victory, but he stopped only 11 of 15 shots Saturday.