Near the end of any sport's season, fans and analysts usually look at where teams would be in the playoffs "if the season ended today."
Well, if that were the case, the MSU hockey team would be fine in the CCHA Tournament. The Spartans would host Nebraska-Omaha in the first round at Munn Ice Arena, and with a best-of-three win, they would advance to the CCHA Super Six finals at Joe Louis Arena in Detroit.
But if the season ended today, the Spartans would probably be left out of the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1993. MSU is tied with Harvard for 16th place in the latest Pairwise Rankings, which have successfully predicted the NCAA Tournament field in all four years of its existence.
The national tournament expanded from 12 to 16 teams this year, and added an automatic bid for the champion of the fledgling College Hockey America conference. The Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference also has an automatic bid for its champion.
But since no CHA or MAAC team is in the top 16 of the Pairwise, the Spartans would most likely have to move up at least to No. 14 to get an at-large invite to the tourney.
The good news for the Spartans is that it's far from impossible to ascend.
MSU's remaining opponents - Northern Michigan, Michigan, and Western Michigan - are all in the top 25 in the Pairwise, and the formula heavily rewards wins over quality opponents.
That's one of the reasons Saturday's 5-3 win over then-No. 8 U-M was so important.
"They were coming in No. 8, so we needed this for Pairwise Rankings," MSU sophomore center Jim Slater said. "With teams losing in upsets and everything, we're right back in the hunt of things now."
A lot can change on a day-to-day basis because the Pairwise is based on four criteria: Record against common opponents, head-to-head competition, records against other teams with Ratings Percentage Indexes above .500, and the RPI itself.
It might seem like a bunch of mathematical mumbo-jumbo, but because of the Pairwise's history, college hockey players and coaches put a lot of stock in it.
"It's up in all our rooms," sophomore left wing Kevin Estrada said. "We're always taking a peek, but we're trying to stay focused."
Of course, the Pairwise would lose its relevance and MSU's situation would clear up instantly if the Spartans win the CCHA Tournament, thus earning an automatic bid.
But if the Spartans fall short in Detroit, they'll probably be battling teams such as U-M, Denver, Providence, Minnesota State-Mankato, Harvard, Dartmouth, Merrimack and Northern for the final slots in the NCAA Tournament.
As for the CCHA race, MSU is in fourth place, four points behind U-M, five behind Ohio State and 10 behind Ferris State. The Bulldogs have four games left, while the other three teams have six.
Ever since MSU found itself in 10th place in early January, MSU head coach Rick Comley talked about getting into the top three. On Saturday, he amended his hope.
"Right now, I'd like four and above," Comley said. "We play Northern next weekend, which will be tough games, obviously, and then back with Michigan, and then home-and-home with Western, which will be another two tough ones.
"But we can still move."
