One game past the halfway point of the season, the MSU hockey team has a .500 record (9-9-1 overall, 5-6-0 CCHA). For a team that hasn't had a losing season since 1991, the players and coaches agree it's a mark teetering on the edge of unacceptability.
Dissecting MSU's problem is a continuous process for head coach Rick Comley. He maintains the theory that the Spartans aren't fast, strong or tough enough to be a premier college team right now.
But it's no secret the team's subpar record is also a direct result of sagging statistics in two major parts of the game - defense and special teams.
Offensively, this year's Spartans aren't too much different from last season's 27-9-5 team that finished second in the league and lost in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. This year's team is actually scoring a smidgen more than last year (3.16 goals per game vs. 3.15), and the power-play success rate is similar (.222 this year vs. .219 last season).
But the big change has been on the defensive end.
Last year, with All-American goaltender Ryan Miller manning the pipes and a staunch defensive corps led by departed seniors Andrew Hutchinson and Jon Insana, the Spartans gave up a measly 1.78 goals per game - the fewest in the nation. They also led the NCAA in penalty killing, nullifying 90.5 percent of opponents' man-advantage opportunities.
This season, those numbers have degenerated to 3.42 goals allowed per game, and a 80.9 percent penalty-killing rate.
The Spartans rank eighth in the CCHA in offense and defense, ninth in penalty killing, and fourth in power play success. Last year, MSU was first in defense, penalty killing and power play and sixth in offense.
"If we could take away one goal and add a half a goal, that's probably what it's going to take to put three or four (wins) together," Comley said. "We miss who we lost - a lot more than a lot of people thought we would.
"I've been watching film from last year, trying to figure out what's there that I'm not seeing. One thing is that we're not good enough defensively. And it's not the system - we're not playing a lot different than last year's team in terms of philosophy."
The absence of Miller, who forfeited his senior season to play professional hockey, is probably the biggest reason for the defense's statistical swoon. In his place, sophomore Matt Migliaccio (2.66 goals against average) and freshman Justin Tobe (4.80) have been frustratingly inconsistent.
"We don't give up too many odd-man rushes, we don't get trapped a lot," Comley said. "It's just that we struggle at our goal line and too many pucks have gone in."
At times, Migliaccio and Tobe have maligned themselves by allowing "soft" goals - ones they should have stopped with little problem. But other times, the goalies have been at the mercy of a younger, weaker defensive troop than Miller was blessed with last year.
Senior blueliners Brad Fast and John-Michael Liles are usually solid, but junior Joe Markusen and freshmen Corey Potter and Jared Nightingale have had up-and-down seasons. Markusen alone has a minus-9 plus/minus rating, which is the worst on the team.
Senior Steve Clark switched from forward to defense after the mid-season desertions of sophomore Duncan Keith and freshman Evan Shaw. He contends that the Spartans can't dwell on numbers if they want to climb out of 10th place.
"At this point, we need to put all the statistics behind us and focus on each individual game and each shift," Clark said. "There are 24 guys on this team who would each rather have 20 more points in the standings than 20 more points in their own statistics. At least, I would hope that would be how it is.
"That's how I feel, and I know that's how the rest of the seniors feel."
On the positive side of the stats book, MSU is the second least-penalized team in the CCHA.
But another negative number for MSU is "one." That's how many conference wins both Bowling Green and Lake Superior State have - both of which came at the expense of the Spartans.
"I'm not a stats guy," Fast said. "I just know the win-loss column. And, to me, that's the biggest thing we need to improve right now.
"We're a team that wants to score goals, and we're also a team that doesn't like to get scored on no matter what the situation is on the ice. We'd really like to improve both offense and defense - and I think we're coming."
