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Analysts: Candidate faces tough battle to upset Whitmer

April 5, 2002

Williamston - In a United Methodist church in his hometown, Larry Ward officially kicked off his campaign Thursday night in what many call an uphill climb against state House incumbent Gretchen Whitmer.

Ward is the only Republican to file so far in the race for the 70th District House seat held by Whitmer, an East Lansing Democrat. His campaign manager, no-preference sophomore Jason Miller, said a GOP representative could better serve the MSU community.

“MSU will have a unique opportunity to close the funding gap between MSU and U of M,” Miller said. “If we get more funding, tuition goes down. Democrats will be in the minority again, and Republicans will have control of committees.”

Whitmer serves on the GOP-controlled House Appropriations Subcommittee on Higher Education. She filed her intent to run for re-election this week.

Both candidates said they plan to court the vote of the district, which includes MSU.

“Students were a big part of my success in 2000,” Whitmer said.

Ward, a financial services associate emphasizes interpersonal relationships with students. He also said he plans to heavily campaign with rotary clubs, pro-life groups and religious organizations.

“I’m targeting specific groups,” he said. “We want to start with the grassroots effort and go out from there.”

But Ward faces a tough battle to beat Whitmer, who took nearly 58 percent of the vote against Republican businessman Bill Hollister in 2000.

“I think it’s a race where unfortunately for the Republican nominee, there’s little chance of success,” said Bill Ballenger, editor of Inside Michigan Politics. “There are plenty of opportunities around the state for Republicans to increase their majority, but this isn’t one of them.”

Ballenger said to win, Ward will need “a miracle” between now and November.

“He’s climbing a very tall mountain,” Ballenger said. “It’s tough to knock off an incumbent, and Gretchen has financial resources if she needs them.”

Ed Sarpolus, vice president of the Lansing polling firm EPIC/MRA, agreed. He said although the district looks politically balanced on paper, challenging Whitmer will be more difficult than it appears.

“Her fund-raising ability, popularity and strong name identification makes him have to work harder,” Sarpolus said. “It will be difficult for her to lose.”

Nicole Szczepanski, a journalism freshman who met Ward through Miller, wants to build support for Ward on campus by making his name familiar to students.

“A lot of people want to help but just don’t know where to go,” she said. “The important thing is getting people active and involved.”

Ward is hopeful, however, and began campaigning door-to-door and sending mailings after the kickoff meeting.

“We’re trying to put the word out,” he said. “Building that volunteer base is very important.”

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