Political races are starting to heat up, and the race for the 8th Congressional District seat is no exception - its two leading candidates are in a statistical tie.
A recent poll conducted by Lansing-based EPIC/MRA shows the race for the 8th Congressional District - which includes MSU - between state senators Dianne Byrum, D-Onondaga, and Mike Rogers, R-Brighton, is in a virtual tie.
The phone survey of 300 voters showed Rogers holds a slight edge over Byrum, earning 42 percent compared to 40 percent for Byrum. Two percent chose Green Party candidate Bonnie Bucqueroux, while 16 percent said they were undecided. The margin of error in the poll was 5.7 percentage points.
“Byrum has to feel good that in a base Republican district, that she is tied with Rogers,” said Ed Sarpolus, vice president of EPIC/MRA.
The seat had been held by U.S. Rep. Debbie Stabenow, D-Lansing, who is challenging U.S. Sen. Spence Abraham, R-Auburn Hills, for his seat.
Though the poll was conducted as a random survey of likely voters, it does call for some degree of skepticism.
Bill Ballenger, editor and publisher of Lansing political newsletter Inside Michigan Politics, questions the overall size of the polling audience, noting its limited scope of society, as well as the sizable margin of error.
“This poll is virtually meaningless,” Ballenger said. “It tends to confirm the public’s general understanding that this race is neck and neck.”
But while the polls seem unimportant to Ballenger, candidates are not taking the results lightly.
John Nevin, Rogers’ campaign manager, said the poll means a lot to his candidate.
“It’s a big deal that we’re ahead,” Nevin said. “We’re ahead of where we thought we’d be at this point.
“It beats losing.”
Byrum campaign manager Tom Russell said his candidate is not concerned by results that have her trailing Rogers, even though Byrum’s entire state Senate district lies within the 8th Congressional District.
“The poll shows that the race is within a margin of error,” Russell said. “It shows a dead heat.”
Those who did choose to participate in the survey were asked a series of questions ranging from their likeliness to vote, to their opinions on a number of key issues - namely prescription plans, Social Security and Medicare.
Sarpolus said little has changed in the race since June, when EPIC/MRA conducted a poll that returned a result of 40 percent to 40 percent. Again, the remaining 20 percent of those surveyed were predominantly undecided.
“(The 8th District) is almost a 50-50 district,” Ballenger said. “The Republicans might have the narrowest margin, even though for the last 26 years the district has been represented mainly by Democrats.”
The 8th District race is one of the nation’s most watched and highly contested races. The seat is considered crucial to which party will control the House next year.
“Control of the U.S. House hangs in the balance,” Ballenger said. “A swing of only seven seats from Republican to Democrat will give the Democrats control of the House - this is one of the key seats.”
Tim Mosley can be reached at mosleyti@msu.edu.
