Fidel Castro temporarily ceded his powers to his brother July 31, 2006, when he announced he had undergone intestinal surgery. Since then, he has not been seen in public, appearing only sporadically as his younger brother consolidated his rule.

Silver said real political reform might not happen until both brothers are dead, but added that Raul Castro isn’t much younger than his brother.

“This is probably nearing the end of Castro leadership, but (Raul Castro) is still running a socialist, communist regime,” he said. “It’s clearly a reason for some optimism, but no one should be counting on what will happen next.”

In a letter published Tuesday in the online edition of the Communist Party daily Granma, Castro expressed regret in resigning his position.

“My wishes have always been to discharge my duties to my last breath,” Castro wrote. But “it would be a betrayal to my conscience to accept a responsibility requiring more mobility and dedication than I am physically able to offer.”

Manuel Chavez, associate director of the Center for Latin American and Caribbean Studies and an assistant professor of journalism, said media coverage in Cuba hasn’t addressed Cuba’s political future because Castro controls the media, but other media coverage impressed him.

“News reports from newspapers in Latin America have been digging,” Chavez said. “It’s unbelievable the comprehensive coverage happening. From Mexico to Brazil, all newspapers are trying to see the consequences.”

Doctoral student Cristian Doña, secretary of MSU student group La Comunidad Latino Americana, said Raul Castro is perceived as being more pragmatic than his brother.

“(Raul Castro) is closer to the Chinese model in his Marxist approach,” he said. “When Raul Castro talks about making changes, he might follow a Chinese approach.”

In Washington, the government said it had no plans to change U.S. policy or lift its embargo on Cuba.

Doña said the U.S. has a clause to not lift the embargo on Cuba as long as a Castro remains in power.

He added that the embargo probably has worked against reform in Cuba, because the democratic, Western principles of the United States haven’t been exposed to Cuban citizens through trade.

“I don’t think the embargo has produced any results in 40 years, and public policy that doesn’t produce results isn’t very good public policy,” he said.

The United States built a detailed plan in 2005 for American assistance to ensure a democratic transition on the island of 11.2 million people after Castro’s death. But Cuban officials have insisted the island’s socialist political and economic systems will outlive Castro.

Silver said Fidel Castro’s presence will continue to be felt in Cuba, even if his brother takes control.

Staff writer Mike Blasky contributed to this report.