The Republicans have begun insinuating in certain political ads that Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama is almost assured of a win — arguing that, as a result, it’s more important than ever to keep a Republican firewall at least in the Senate, if not the House of Representatives.

FiveThirtyEight.com, one of the most respected polling aggregators on the Internet, is predicting a 96.7 percent chance that Obama will capture the presidency, with a current projection of his winning 351.2 electoral votes — well more than the 270 needed.

The news has picked up the scent of blood in the air, and stories of Republicans in disarray already are bubbling up.

The New York Times Magazine’s Sunday cover article was about the McCain presidential campaign’s struggle to find a compelling narrative, full of unattributed quotes hinting at backstabbing and dissension in the ranks.

Britain’s Sunday Telegraph went one step further with a story detailing an upcoming civil war within the Republican Party, in which prominent conservative writers including David Frum and Peggy Noonan will be “excommunicated” for speaking out against Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin, whom is envisioned as the new future of the conservative movement.

If the election plays out as currently projected, it’s a stunning fall for a party that once dreamed of a “permanent majority.” Recovering from such a staggering defeat will take time and a rethinking of exactly what they stand for.

It doesn’t help that free-market icons such as Alan Greenspan are forced to admit the objectivist ideals — formed at the feet of Ayn Rand herself — that drove all his economic decisions were possibly flawed and might have led directly to the current economic situation.

The one silver lining in all this for Republicans is simply this: It can’t get any worse. Actually, the lowered expectations might end up helping them. At this point it’s almost expected that they’ll lose in a landslide. Anything less than total and complete defeat will likely be seen as a sign of strength.

Now, imagine what would happen if Republican presidential candidate John McCain pulls off the nearly unthinkable and comes back and wins the election? I mean, 96.7 percent is not 100 percent. Recent polls, including ones conducted by openly liberal blog DailyKos.com, indicate that McCain has seen some upward movement in the past few days.

With victory seeming so certain, a stunning defeat would be more than a demoralizing blow to Democrats. If Obama loses this election, expect a purging of the Democratic Party on a scale that Republicans could only dream of.

Some might argue with that idea — stating that Democrats have been favored before and lost without major ramifications for the party. It’s been noted that at this point in 2004, Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry was predicted to win the election. Although he ultimately lost, the projections were nowhere near as solidly in his favor as they are for Obama.

Democrats in 2004 definitely weren’t walking with quite the same swagger as they are now — muted as it might be. There definitely weren’t whispers and talk about how Democrats could possibly capture a filibuster-proof 60-seat majority in the Senate, a magic number that would possibly allow them to pursue their agenda freely.

If that crushing victory doesn’t come, there will be many asking why it slipped through their hands. Barring a major crisis, there will be plenty of blame to go around, and plenty of people will suddenly find themselves smeared with the taint of the loss.

Democrats need to remember that when you set a high bar, you have to pass it. It might feel great right now, but the consequence of failure will be greater than many imagine.

James Harrison is the State News opinion writer. Reach him at harri310@msu.edu.