MSU researchers have come up with three scenarios to gauge how summer gas prices could change.
Donald Holecek, a professor in the Department of Park, Recreation and Tourism Resources, said gas prices could fluctuate in three major ways, having varied impacts on travel inside and outside of Michigan.
Holecek and researchers at the Travel, Tourism and Recreation Resource Center at MSU were able to determine the three scenarios. The first, and most likely scenario, indicates gas prices will be the same or slightly higher than prices last year. If this occurs, Holecek said it will have little impact on tourism in Michigan.
"In such a scenario, our research indicates that weather conditions will have the dominate influence on travel behavior, by far trumping the impact of gas prices," he said.
Holecek said the second scenario involves gas spiking to the $4 range in July or August.
"The dominate force at work here will be psychological rather than purely economic," Holecek said. "If the spike in price is short term, some pent-up demand will be captured when price declines, which will somewhat reduce the impact on the overall industry."
Holecek said the third scenario states gas prices could increase and gas shortages would occur.
He said people will still travel, but very few will go beyond where they can drive on one tank of gas.
And although gas prices could slightly increase, it's unlikely that it will have a significant impact on summer travel, Holecek said.
"The response to gas price increases that has historically emerged is that consumers ratchet up their level of complaining about prices but keep right on traveling," he said.
But with gas prices rising above $3, some Michiganians might not go away for a summer vacation, potentially benefiting the state's economy.
"We're optimistic that it may work in our favor, it just may keep people closer to home this summer," said Kristen Borgstrom, media relations manager at Travel Michigan, an organization that promotes statewide travel.
Borgstrom said Michigan has many vacation experiences to offer, so people don't need to leave the state.
"If you're looking for wilderness you can get that in Michigan," she said. "If you're looking for beaches, you can get that in Michigan and if you're looking for a great golf getaway, you can get that in Michigan too."
