Snow enthusiasts might find less of the white powder than usual this winter, experts say.
Winter temperatures are expected to be fairly typical, but snowfall is projected to be lighter this season, local and national meteorologists said.
Throughout the winter weather season - defined by meteorologists as December through February - a weak El Niño system in the Pacific near the equator is going to lead to drier-than-usual conditions, said David Beachler, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service's Grand Rapids center.
"We're pretty confident that the pattern we've forecasted for this winter is going to pan out," said Beachler, adding that even with the service's projections, nature can still be unpredictable.
This winter's first snowfall came on Nov. 24, which Beachler said was fairly close to the average schedule - the first inch of snowfall in Lansing usually comes around Nov. 20. More than five inches fell the first day, surpassing the average November snowfall of 5.1 inches.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released a national winter outlook on Nov. 18. According to the release, much of the Midwest, including all of Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota, is expected to experience fairly normal temperatures this season.
A portion of the United States, from Michigan south to Tennessee, and Iowa and Missouri east to Pennsylvania, is projected for less precipitation.
Several factors go into predicting a seasonal forecast. Weather patterns in Alaska and Canada, in addition to those in the North Atlantic and the equatorial Pacific, all have potential impacts on Midwestern seasonal weather, Beachler said.
Before defining a big picture, "you have to look at everything across the Northern Hemisphere, and basically everything across the entire globe, to see what's going on in the entire world," he said.
El Niño plays one of the largest roles in the region's weather, because it impacts the jet stream and can be used as a tool in predicting long-term weather patterns in other parts of the country, said Jeff Andresen, associate professor of geography.
"That's why it is important and that's why there's a link between what goes on in the Pacific and what goes on here in the mid-latitudes," Andresen said.
Russell Wroe, the owner of Advanced Towing & Snowplowing, 1635 Illinois Ave. in Lansing, said he has noticed Michigan winters getting shorter and milder since the 1960s and 1970s.
"When we get winter, it's mainly through December and January, and a little in February," Wroe said, adding that last winter, his company plowed at least 10 times in January, but only about three in February.
"January seems to be the month for snow."
