With Thursday's loss at Purdue, MSU is now in a do-or-die situation if it wants to make it to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1997.
There are three games left in the season, and the Spartans (15-9 overall, 8-5 Big Ten) need to rack up the wins to secure a spot in the Big Dance. Winning out could also improve their seeding for the Big Ten Tournament beginning March 6.
Illinois (15-9, 7-6) visits Breslin Center at 7 p.m. today, sporting a near-identical record to MSU. That could be either good or bad for the Spartans.
If MSU can pull off a victory over the Fighting Illini, the Spartans are guaranteed to finish no lower than fourth in the conference. MSU also would receive a higher seed than Illinois in the Big Ten Tournament.
But if the Spartans lose, the Illini will pull ahead in the conference standings and would be the winner of any tie-breakers between the two squads. The teams only have one regular-season matchup.
Though the Spartans might deserve a place among the top-25 teams in the nation by defeating three nationally ranked squads - two of them in the top 10 - MSU head coach Joanne P. McCallie said her team doesn't feel slighted yet.
"The only poll we care about is the last one that comes out," McCallie said. "As long as we can keep playing hard we can get people to recognize Michigan State basketball. We just need to get better for a tough game (today)."
Tonight's contest will be a battle of the long-range shots - a strong point for both teams.
MSU leads the Big Ten in 3-point percentage, sinking nearly 43 percent of its attempts. Illinois, however, sits just above the Spartans in buckets made behind the arc, hitting more than six 3-pointers per contest.
This week Illinois practiced ways to attack a matchup zone offense like the Spartans, and Illini head coach Theresa Grentz said her team will come prepared, feeling the urgency the season's end brings.
"Obviously we have to win these next games," Grentz said. "They're not only critical for us, they're critical for everybody who's playing as we fight for these last few positions coming down to the February."
She added that because Illinois does not have a strong inside game, the key to victory will be moving the ball and making the long-range shots.
The Illini come to East Lansing flying high from a 58-54 win over Ohio State (17-8, 8-6) on Wednesday. Guard Angelina Williams led all scorers with 15 points and four boards, followed by guard Tiffanie Guthrie, who added 13 points off the bench.
Williams heads the squad in scoring with an average of 15 points per contest.
Another important matchup will pit forward Cindy Dallas against the MSU frontcourt.
Spartan sophomore center Kelli Roehrig and freshman forward Liz Shimek are a large part of MSU's conference-leading rebounding margin (+9.3), and are third and fourth in scoring for MSU with 12.5 and 10.8 points per game, respectively.
Dallas is second only to Williams in scoring for the Illini, tallying 12.8 per game. Her 9.4 boards per game places her just short of Shimek's conference-leading 9.6 rebounds.
The Spartans are recouping from a setback to No. 11 Purdue on Thursday.
Roehrig netted 15 points while nabbing 12 rebounds in the loss for her second double-double of the season, but Boilermaker forward Shereka Wright scored eight of her game-high 24 points in the final 2:30 to secure the 65-60 win.
MSU freshman guard Lindsay Bowen said despite some upsetting losses, the Spartans have learned what it takes to make it in the post-season.
"Now we've been in big games and we've won some big ones and lost some big ones - we've been through it all," Bowen said. "Our goal is what it has always been, to pursue championships."
