As usual, the Big Ten season is loaded with unpredictability. The 107th year of conference play could go down as one of the most competitive in history.
Michigan, Ohio State and MSU - voted by the Big Ten’s media to finish first, second and third, respectively - haven’t pulled away from the competition. In fact, Penn State already garnered national attention with its undefeated nonconference play. Throw Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota into the mix and there are seven teams that have a chance at the Rose Bowl.
Although Michigan and Ohio State are still the marquee squads, it’s been a while since the “Big Two, Little Eight” days applied to the conference. In the last 12 years, there only are two teams - Indiana and Minnesota - that have not won or shared the Big Ten title. Penn State, now in its 10th year of Big Ten play, joined the mix, too.
“I think it’s a great thing for our conference,” Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz said. “I think as we start the season right now, there are a lot of teams in our conference that have a realistic chance.
“I think every team in our league - high majority of them at least - when they went to camp this August, felt like, ‘Hey, we have a chance to be right there in the thick of things.’”
Tony Mejia, a staff writer for CBS.SportsLine.com, said Penn State, Michigan and Iowa will contend, but Ohio State has the best chance to win the conference.
“Ohio State’s the class of the conference,” he said. “I think Ohio State has the most favorable schedule. They’ve got the inside track.”
Adding to the intrigue of the race could be two Heisman Trophy candidates: Spartans’ junior wide receiver Charles Rogers and Buckeyes’ freshman tailback Maurice Clarett.
Rogers is second in the nation with 158.5 receiving yard per game and has caught at least one touchdown in his last 12 regular-season games and 13 games overall. If he catches a touchdown against Northwestern on Saturday, he’ll set a NCAA and Big Ten record for most consecutive games with a touchdown reception.
In three games, Clarett has taken the nation by storm, rushing for 471 yards and six touchdowns. Both players will likely need team success for a chance at the nation’s most coveted individual honor in collegiate football.
The first weekend provides five games that should answer some questions about the conference’s contenders and pretenders.
Illinois, the defending Big Ten champions, starts the conference schedule at home against the Wolverines. The Fighting Illini are looking to avenge their only conference lost of last season and turnaround a season that has started 1-3.
Penn State welcomes Iowa to Happy Valley as the Nittany Lions try to snap a two-game losing streak to the Hawkeyes. The winner of the showdown gets off to a running start in the race for the conference crown.
In East Lansing, Northwestern and MSU face off at Spartan Stadium in a rematch of one of college football’s most exciting games last season. There were four lead changes in the final five minutes. Former Spartan Herb Haygood returned a kickoff 84 yards for a touchdown to give MSU a 24-20 lead with 29 seconds remaining. But kicker David Wasielewski nailed a 47-yard field goal as time expired to give the Wildcats the victory.
At “The Horseshoe,” Ohio State looks to continue its dominance over Indiana. The Buckeyes hold a 60-12-5 lead over the Hoosiers in the all-time series. Indiana head coach Gerry DiNardo will be looking to steal a win at Ohio Stadium in his first conference game.
Minnesota will be looking to ride the wave of a four-game winning streak into the conference against Purdue, a team that has beaten the Gophers six-straight times. It might give an early indication of Minnesota’s potential.
Undefeated
Wisconsin, Penn State, Ohio State and Minnesota walk into the Big Ten season unscathed. However, all of them have had close calls in at least one game.
Wisconsin (5-0)
The Badgers have played more games than anyone in the conference and will take a week off before hosting Penn State on Oct. 5. The Badgers survived the nonconference schedule without their best player, wide receiver Lee Evans, and could be more dangerous when he returns, which hasn’t been determined. With all of the front-runners crowding the schedule, the road to Pasadena, Calif., won’t be easy for head coach Barry Alvarez’s troops.
Penn State (3-0)
After squeaking by Central Florida 27-24, the Nittany Lions have been impressive. It started with a 40-7 pummeling of Nebraska and 49-17 blowout of Louisiana Tech. The Nebraska win, especially, has some thinking Joe Paterno and company could be claiming their second conference crown since joining the Big Ten. With quarterback Zack Mills running the show, Penn State has the fire power to be in thick of things in November. First they must survive the first month, as they play Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio State before November.
Ohio State (4-0)
The Buckeyes are the top-ranked team entering the conference schedule and shouldn’t face much resistance during the first couple weeks - home against Indiana and away against Northwestern. That schedule should give Clarett time to completely recover from knee surgery. If the running game, isn’t there quarterback Craig Krenzel will need to prove he can win games. They should be 7-0 when they visit Camp Randall for a showdown on Oct. 19.
Minnesota (4-0)
Here’s the question mark of the group. The Golden Gophers have all of the flashy statistics. They are tops in the Big Ten in scoring defense, total defense and pass defense. Offensively, they’re averaging 37.2 points per game and quarterback Asad Abdul-Khaliq has the top pass efficiency rating in the country. One problem, Minnesota hasn’t played anyone. If the Gophers want to be taken seriously, they’ll need to defeat the bottom feeders of the conference - Purdue, Illinois and Northwestern - in the first three weeks of play.
Just as good a shot as anybody
The Wolverines have a strong defense so they’ll be in every game and don’t count out a team that has 40 Big Ten championships. MSU and Iowa are capable of big numbers on the scoreboard against anybody and could be hard to stop if either one get on a roll.
Iowa (3-1)
The Hawkeyes are a team to keep an eye on. If it wasn’t for a third-quarter breakdown against Iowa State, they’d be 4-0.
The Big Ten opener against Penn State will tell a lot about both teams. A win for the Hawkeyes could propel them into contention for the title. Head coach Ferentz said he’s pleased with the progress his team has made, but he knows it’s a long season.
“A lot of things are going to change for the better, for the worst during the course of the eight weeks,” he said. “We have to make sure most of its for the better.”
Michigan (3-1)
The Wolverines are in good shape record wise, but still have questions to be answered. The defense carried the team in a 10-7 win over Utah and will keep them in a lot of games this season.
The emergence of wide receiver Braylon Edwards has been helpful, but quarterback John Navarre and the offense haven’t been consistent. Head coach Lloyd Carr will need Navarre to play better in the conference if they are to contend.
But the place-kicker position is the biggest concern in Ann Arbor.
“We’ve been very, very inconsistent,” Carr said of the kicking game. “And anytime you lose opportunities to put points on the board it is a concern.”
MSU (2-2)
The Spartans haven’t been impressive since the 56-7 massacre of Eastern Michigan in the season opener. Junior wide receiver Charles Rogers has shown he can take over a game single-handedly. If quarterback Jeff Smoker gets hot, the Spartans can runaway with any game. However, if they continue to start slow, they can get blown out of any game.
Longshots
It’s the Big Ten and anything can happen, but these teams look like they will struggle to make bowl games.
Illinois (1-3)
The Fighting Illini stagger into conference play as the only team with a losing record.
“We’re disappointed in our nonconference results,” head coach Ron Turner said. “We’d like to have a little more momentum, or a lot more momentum, going into conference play. But we don’t - that’s the reality of it - so we need to regroup, comeback this week and get ready to go.”
They’ll need to start with the defense, which is giving up more than 400 yards per game. If the defense can tighten up, maybe the Illini can play spoiler in November. They play at Penn State and Wisconsin and host Ohio State.
Purdue (2-2)
The Boilermakers’ offense hasn’t been consistent and that could be bad news if the defense doesn’t hold up. The good news for Purdue is they don’t have to play Penn State or Wisconsin.
Northwestern (2-2)
The Wildcats can cause problems with their offense, especially with the emergence of tailback Jason Wright. However, their defense gives up too many big plays for them to be successful in the conference.
Indiana (2-2)
Head coach DiNardo starts his debut season in the Big Ten. This season, the Hoosiers haven’t had a good combination. They’re last in the conference in scoring with 23.5 points per game and 10th in scoring defense, allowing (28.2) points per game.
Romando J. Dixson can be reached at dixsonro@msu.edu.
