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Experts predict close presidential race

November 5, 2012
	<p>In today&#8217;s presidential election, votes cast in Florida, Michigan and Ohio could prove crucial. </p>

In today’s presidential election, votes cast in Florida, Michigan and Ohio could prove crucial.

Photo by Graphic by Liam Zanyk Mclean | The State News

The coveted swing-state status might officially have eluded Michigan as statewide polls are looking more favorably on President Barack Obama in today’s election, experts said.

Despite both Obama’s and Republican Mitt Romney’s campaigns at one point declaring Michigan to be a crucial state for a presidential win, their priorities have turned to other, traditional swing states, such as Ohio, Florida and North Carolina.

Doug Roberts, the director of MSU’s Institute for Public Policy and Social Research, said if the candidates are separated by anything more than 3 percentage points in state polls, the race generally will be decided; in Michigan, Obama is leading Romney by an average of 4.0 percentage points, according to Real Clear Politics.

MSU assistant professor of political science Sarah Reckhow said the campaigns’ limited resources in the last few weeks of campaigning likely forced them to re-examine which states to focus on, and Michigan lost its priority status.

“Michigan is very unlikely to change the outcome of the election,” Reckhow said. “I think a lot of analyses of polls and how close the polls are in different states — Ohio, Florida and Virginia — are the tipping points. Michigan is just not even in the secondary tipping points.”

Still, both the Obama and Romney supporters have increased their involvement here in recent months, hoping to eke out a win, launching new campaign-affiliated ads a week before the election.

Obama campaign spokesman Jermaine House said the pathway to the presidency always included Michigan for both candidates, and in the final stretch of the race, the campaign is focused on engaging voters.

“We have always understood this race would be close,” House said. “That’s why we have been planning and building toward that reality, but ultimately, we are going to win Michigan. Republicans are feigning momentum.”

But Republicans statewide aren’t giving up without a fight and have turned out in droves for voter efforts across the state.

“(The victory centers) are jam-packed,” Michigan Victory Communications Director Kelsey Knight said. “That shows me that there is an enthusiasm to elect Gov. Romney, and tomorrow, everyone is going to come out and we’re going to see a landslide.”

Romney’s sons, Josh and Matt, also paired up with the Michigan GOP on a bus tour Monday across Michigan.

MSU College Republicans vice chair Cody Hibbs said the outcome of Tuesday’s election depends on whether enough Romney supporters show up at the polls, which is why he has been doing last-minute election outreach on campus.

Even states Obama won handily in 2008 could be significantly closer Tuesday night, which Hibbs said was indicative of a toss-up race.

But the way polls look in states across the U.S. is not promising for Romney’s victory, Roberts said.

If Obama can carry both Ohio and Wisconsin, Romney has no chance, even if he wins Florida or North Carolina, he added.

Staff writer Samantha Radecki contributed to this report.

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